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FXUS61 KALY 140149
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
949 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers into this evening before we trend drier
overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures become even warmer tomorrow
ahead of a weak cold front and upper level disturbance which
will lead to more widespread showers and potentially a few
storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 949 PM EDT...Warm front is lifting northward across
Upstate New York. A southwesterly low level jet is allowing for
some warm advection/isentropic lift, although the best forcing
is northwest of the region. Radar imagery shows a batch of
showers moving across the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley. Based on radar trends and CAMs, this activity will be
heading eastward and may impacts parts of the Lake George
Saratoga Region and Capital Region over the next few hours. NYS
Mesonet has been showing rainfall amounts of around a tenth of
an inch or so with this activity, as the fairly dry low levels
has been allowing for some of the precip to dry up before
reaching the ground and the radar has looked a little heavier
than activity actually is. This batch appears to be the most
likely chance for precip tonight, as the remainder of the
activity is north of Lake Ontario and will be impacting areas
north and northwest of the region for tonight. Otherwise, skies
will be partly to mostly cloudy across the region, with a light
southerly breeze.

Behind these showers, clouds may gradually decrease for the late
night hours. As this occurs, some patchy fog may try to develop
in some sheltered areas, especially for spots that see any
rainfall.    Lows tonight in the 50s with around 50 southern
Adirondacks. It could be a degree or two cooler depending on
what areas may see better clearing before daybreak.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Boundary layer flow turns to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper disturbance and associated cold front out of
the Great Lakes and Canada. Upstream satellite imagery shows
quite a bit of clearing and that zone of clearing, with some
areas of mid and high clouds will be over our region much of
the day Tuesday. So, with surface winds from the south,
boundary layer winds from the southwest and at least some
filtered sun should help temperatures to rise well into the 70s
to around 80. Then, a band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms develops ahead of the cold from central NY through
the western Mohawk Valley, NY/Canadian border through the
Adirondacks during the afternoon, that will gradually build east
and south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rain, as there will be some instability in place
and midlevel lapse rates not overly steep but enough to result
in enough instability for some locally enhanced updrafts in
stronger thunderstorms.

The front is expected to become nearly stationary across our
region, while southern stream upper energy tracks south of our
region Wednesday and south of Long Island Thursday. Onshore flow
strengthens over our region Wednesday with the development of
low pressure offshore Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a
widespread cloudiness across our region, and a region of
showers into areas south of the Capital Region. Some scattered
showers along the weakening front from the Capital Region and
points north is also possible but less coverage of showers.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to around 70.

Lingering showers Thursday as the upper system exits south and
east of Long Island with potential breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon as weak high pressure begins to build in. Highs
Thursday around 70 to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
More generally unsettled weather through the weekend into the
beginning of next week but quite a bit of spread in sources of
guidance/ensembles. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in
timing and track of upper impulses that cold bring considerable
cloud cover and some periods of scattered showers to our region.
There are some hints of some persistent narrow low level ridging
in our region with better chances for rain with southern stream
upper energy centered just south of our region, and northern
stream upper energy affecting mainly areas just north of our
region. It is much too early to have any confidence on timing
and track of systems, so indicating just a mostly cloudy sky
with chances for showers through much of the weekend with
possible breaks in the clouds and less coverage of showers by
Sunday and Monday.

Highs Friday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday in the 60s to near 70. Highs Sunday in the 70s with
around 70 higher terrain. Highs Monday in the 70s with near 80
mid Hudson Valley and around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with
mainly bkn cigs around 6-10 kft. A warm front will be allowing
for some showers overnight, although most of the activity will
be northwest of the area. Based on current radar imagery, a few
of these may scrape KGFL/KALB, so will allow a tempo there for
a few hours for the late evening. Within showers, flying
conditions (mainly for visibility) may briefly go to MVFR, but
this activity looks limited and fairly quick. There has been
some thunder upstream, but it appears that this will be
weakening with the loss of daytime heating, so won`t include any
thunder in the TAF at this time.

Behind this activity, skies may gradually clear out overnight.
There should be a lingering light southerly breeze. Because of
the light breeze, won`t include any fog in the TAF, but if skies
clear quicker and the breeze lets up, then a brief period of fog
can`t be ruled out just prior to sunrise.

During the day on Tuesday, flying conditions will generally be
VFR. Skies will start out fairly clear with just some cirrus.
Through the day, mid and high level clouds will increase and
some cumulus may move in for late in the day. Some showers and
t-storms are possible towards the end of the TAF period,
although there are more likely for Tuesday night. Through the
day, southerly winds will be around 10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis