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816
FXUS61 KALY 151800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers diminish this afternoon and evening as a
boundary to the north and west continues to weaken, while an
approaching coastal low brings additional rain showers to the
Mid- Hudson Valley and southern New England overnight. Showers
continue through Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday.
Additional chances for rain are expected this weekend into next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of
the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient
surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the
northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally, enhanced rain
shower coverage over the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson
Valley is expected to continue trending northward, with much
more scattered showers persisting across the remainder of the
region. A more solid shield of precipitation is impinging upon
the southern New England coast as the coastal low approaches,
which will reach into areas along and east of the Taconics in
western New England overnight tonight.

Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period,
with afternoon highs remaining below seasonal norms in the upper
50s to low 60s in high terrain and mid to upper 60s at lower
elevations. Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40
to upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds
this afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast
about the northern flank of the approaching low.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Throughout the day Thursday, some additional scattered showers
are possible throughout eastern New York and western New England
as the coastal low retrogrades a bit back towards the New
Jersey coastline. The higher likelihood of more widespread
showers remains in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New
England, but some isolated to scattered showers are possible
within and north of the Capital District. Highs Thursday will
rise into the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low to mid
60s above 1000 ft.

As the coastal low drifts south Thursday night, precipitation
will gradually taper off completely, giving way to building
heights with the advance of a modest trough and weak surface
high. With these fair-weather features in place, Friday will
feature dry conditions with highs in the 70s. However, with
another disturbance swiftly approaching the region for the
weekend and mid-level moisture remaining elevated, expect skies
to be partly to mostly cloudy.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with a cold front approaching
the region Fri night and weakening with increasing clouds and the
best chance for isolated to scattered showers along and west of the
Hudson River Valley and Lake George. Lows will generally be in
the 50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain.

The upcoming weekend will depend on the track of the mid and upper
level low over the Midwest and the TN Valley. The latest medium
range guidance and some of the ensembles have trended drier to
open the weekend. A trough of low pressure will have an inverted
sfc trough, so we kept a low chance for scattered showers Sat
pm into the early evening. It will be mostly cloudy with near
normal temps in the 60s to around 70F for highs and lows in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. The mid and upper level trough moves
towards the East Coast with a coastal wave near the mid Atlantic
States on Sunday. Some moisture may advect northward for a
chance of showers south of the Capital Region with a slight
chance north and east. If downstream ridging builds in, then
this day may be drier north of the I-90 corridor. Temps will be
similar to Saturday.

Sunday night into Tuesday, H500 ridging may fold in over NY and
New England for a brief dry trend of weather late Sunday night
through Monday. A sfc anticyclone will build in from the Ohio
Valley. Max temps rise slightly above normal. A more progressive
short-wave and a cold front may bring scattered showers and
some thunderstorms late Monday Night into Tuesday. Timing issues
continue in the medium range and ensembles into the middle of
next week. Temps may rise above normal around 5 degrees with
upper 70s in the lower elevation to close the extended period.
The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast May 22-28 is for near normal
temps and slightly above normal rainfall for eastern NY and
western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 18z Thursday...Periods of showers continue this afternoon
between a stationary front positioned to the north and west and a
coastal storm to the south. The steadiest -SHRA will move across
KGFL, but at there will be at least some -SHRA at KALB/KPOU/KPSF as
well. Conditions will be mainly MVFR through much of the afternoon,
although occasional VFR should also occur at times with BKN-OVC
cigs. Borderline MVFR/VFR cigs expected into early this evening.

THe -SHRA should decrease in coverage by this evening, with
additional -SHRA possibly developing overnight mainly at KPOU/KPSF
from the coastal low as it slowly shifts north. There is low
confidence in how far north/west the -SHRA will get though.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions tonight,
mainly due to low cigs.

Winds will initially be south-southeast around 3-6 kt, becoming
north-northeast and increasing to 6-10 kt late tonight into early
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV