-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
139
FXUS61 KBTV 180516
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
116 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend has begun with Burlington hitting 80 degrees for
the first time this year. Other than a few showers today and
Saturday, dry conditions are expected to prevail through the first
half of next week. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm
through early next week with highs approaching the mid to upper 80s
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 116 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for the
remainder of the overnight hours. Despite an abundance of radar
returns across portions of northern New York, surface
observations show no precipitation, and with trends towards less
returns for the night, the region should remain dry. With lot
of mid-level clouds around, temps are running a few degrees
above the previous forecast so adjusted lows up a couple of
degrees.

Heading into the daylight hours, it may not be as dry as
expected for a few locations. If you remember several days ago,
we were talking about this stalled low pressure system over the
coastal Mid- Atlantic. Well, this system will finally be on the
move and will be shifting northward. Models support
southeasterly flow that is expected to advect moisture and
showers into coastal New England and how far westward this
showers move inland remains in questions. The latest package of
model data hasn`t helped our confidence as some models show it
moving into the Connecticut River Valley while others keep the
precip closer to the coast. Nevertheless, it would be just some
scattered showers, at most, that would make it into the region
should the precip push westward. Overall, it`ll be another nice
day with more cloud cover today and highs in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the latter
half of the weekend with high pressure building over the region.
Daytime heating will allow diurnal cumulus to develop during the
afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but with ample dry
air in place, precipitation is not expected. Afternoon highs will
range from the lower/mid 70s east of the Greens and over the
Adirondacks to the mid/upper 70s in the wider valleys; a few
locations may top 80F. Lows Sunday night will likewise vary by
location, with higher terrain spots in the lower/mid 50s and mid 50s
to around 60F elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Ridging will settle over the region through
mid week, resulting in a warming trend. With 850 mb temperatures
approaching 15-16C and ample mixing from steep low level lapse
rates, high temperatures are expected to warm well into the 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with some valley locations possibly
approaching 90F. An upper shortwave trough will ride up over the top
of the ridge on Wednesday and may bring some showers and
thunderstorms to mainly northern NY during the afternoon. Cloud
cover from this activity may temper warming a bit, but did go a
couple of degrees above the NBM both Tuesday and Wednesday given the
favorable set up. Better thunderstorm chances arrive on Thursday
with a cold frontal passage. Shear will be ample with 35-40 kt
between 0-6 km, and while there should be plenty of CAPE, it will
depend on how moist the column is and how steep mid- level lapse
rates are. Still, storms could be strong with heavy rain. Trends
will need to be watched as we approach mid-late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period under BKN-OVC mid clouds from 6000-12000 feet through
midday, becoming SCT-BKN and lowering to 5000-7000 feet this
afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible at KMPV and KEFK
for a few hours from mid-morning through early afternoon, but
visibility should not lower below VFR given the high ceilings.
Winds through the period will range from 5-10kts from the
southeast, with periods of calm from 06-12Z. Exception will be
KMSS where the wind direction will be more northeasterly after
14Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff