-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
415
FXUS61 KBTV 162325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks
in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High
pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this
weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our
first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 723 PM EDT Thursday...With a few more breaks in cloud
cover, the extent of fog was expanded in the Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont where precipitation has fallen. Otherwise, the
forecast is right on track with diminishing shower chances as
daytime heating wains.

Previous Discussion...The stalled frontal boundary, not
surprisingly, hasn`t move much throughout the day today.
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the frontal boundary
very well with an agitated cumulus field along the front, stable
stratus behind the front, and increasing cloud cover ahead of
the front. Given nice baroclinicity associated with differential
heating, we`ve seen scattered showers develop across northern
Vermont and northern New York. Given weak thermal profiles,
equilibrium levels around 14kft should limit updraft strength
and will likely prevent the ice nucleation needed to create
lightning. Some showers this afternoon and evening could be
heavy at times we a few sites reporting up to half of an inch of
rain in an hour. We should quickly see these showers wane as we
head into the evening and lose what limited instability that is
currently in place. We will finally see the frontal boundary
lift north on Friday as a a developing upper level ridge finally
displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This
should shift the shower activity north of the International
Border on Friday but another round of showers is expected to
move in from the west Friday night with the main focus of the
shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring
the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a
moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday
catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability
is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of
thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday
afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5
degrees above climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging
will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the
first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing
temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in
producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all
goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the
BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s
across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher
elevations for those days, particularly Monday.

The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a
frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow
high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are being observed and are
expected to continue through the TAF period. While fog has been
observed the past several nights, the likelihood of fog is much
lower than previous nights. Light northerly winds this afternoon
will go light and variable overnight and ultimately shift to the
south at 5-10 knots Friday morning. A few showers will be around
this afternoon but are expected to dodge our TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Clay