-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
341
FXUS61 KBTV 151412
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1012 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and
tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today
and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on
Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work
week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards
normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1003 AM EDT Wednesday...Increased coverage of Slight
Chance Thunder today for much of our northern counties,
especially the northern Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom.
Forecast soundings showing 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE developing by the
afternoon. Satellite showing some clearing in northern VT this
morning, which is aiding in modest destabilization. Coverage of
thunder will not be widespread by any means, but can`t rule out
a rumble of thunder and some heavier downpours. Moist adiabatic
lapse rates will mitigate severe risk, though may see some
heavier rainfall rates in any convective showers/thunderstorms.
Not expecting any hydro issues - forecast QPF is well under
flash flood guidance, but with the boundary stalling and the
heavier PW values, will keep an eye on rainfall rates. Previous
discussion follows...

Surface front will lift northward back into our area today, and
become stationary across Northern New York and Vermont. With
this surface boundary remaining anchored across the north
country, additional showers are expected today and tonight.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with
mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Fog that
has formed overnight will lift shortly after sunrise. Only a
slight chance for thunder mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of
Vermont, but not anticipating any strong storms with a lack of
surface based instability present today. Cold front will finally
drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers
will diminish. Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with
temperatures warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should
be a nice day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance
continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work
week with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through
the overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for
Friday. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature
trends for Friday continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps
around +16C supporting highs well into the 70s with some
isolated 80s possible in the deeper valleys. The good news is
that humidity won`t be an issue with dewpoints only in the 50s,
so it should be a nice end to the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions
continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of
ensemble guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting
daily QPF of greater than 0.1" through the period. Where
previously a weak cold front looked to swing in Friday night
into Saturday, now is progged to weaken and lift north, and a
southern stream system which looked to close off over the
eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as an open wave and
south of the forecast area. As such, the North Country and
Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no precipitation
under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at times.
Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through
Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer
with highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Fog ended up forming in many spots
overnight, and is hanging on the longest at MPV where LIFT
conditions exist. Have MVFR conditions at BTV, MSS, PBG and SLK.
Only EFK and RUT are VFR at this time. Even the most stubborn
fog should lift by about 14z. We will have increasing chances
for showers across the airspace. About 15z-16z, surface
stationary front strengthens and numerous showers will begin to
develop with ceilings falling to 1000-2500 ft agl and
visibilities 3 to 6SM in heavier showers. There could be some
improvement late in the day at KRUT and KMPV to VFR. Winds will
become south to southwest 4 to 8 knots, but remain northeast at
KMSS. Shower activity wanes after 22z.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Duell/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles