-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
206
FXUS61 KBTV 141156
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next few
days with several rounds of showers, with numerous showers and
some embedded thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Seasonable
high temperatures and mild overnight lows are expected for much
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 708 AM EDT Tuesday...Focus for showers this morning is
along the international border, as expected with warm front
stalled out in that area. Models continue to show potential for
some thunderstorms this afternoon in the warm sector as
temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s. Still thinking that
storms will not be overly strong or severe, but will have to
keep an eye on them. Previous discussion follows.

A warm front situated near the international border will be
focus for showers this morning. Clouds and showers will be
ongoing at sunrise, and continue into the morning hours.
Eventually surface boundary will sink southward, and we could
see some thunderstorms with the frontal passage. At this time
think we`ll just see some garden variety thunderstorms. There`s
not a lot of strong winds aloft, and much of the convection
looks like it will be elevated. Lingering cloud cover during the
morning hours, especially across our northern zones, may limit
surface based instability. Temperatures in parts of southern
Vermont will be close to the 80 degree mark. Will need to
monitor potential for heavy downpours, especially in areas that
have more than one thunderstorm cross the location. Shower
activity will die down following sunset with remaining
instability going away. Showers will continue into the overnight
and even into the day Wednesday, though chance for thunder
diminishes. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with plenty
of cloud cover remaining in place and some showers ongoing. Then
temperatures on Wednesday will be not quite as warm as today as
a surface cold front will also cross our area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast for the latter half of
the work week is relatively unchanged from the previous thinking
with the main features of interest being a stalling frontal
boundary over the region and an upper low closing off over the
eastern seaboard. Afternoon convection on Wednesday associated
with the stalling surface boundary will gradually dissipate in
the evening with the loss of daytime heating and much of
Wednesday night should be dry and mild with min temps only in
the 50s. As the front stalls over the region on Thursday in
response to the upper low closing off, additional showers will
develop from mid-day through the afternoon but as mid- level
heights rise towards the evening with the approach of a weak
mid-level ridge we should see showers rapidly dissipate. Dry
conditions follow for Thursday night through Friday with the
ridge in place, allowing for temperatures to remain above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early
next week, our unsettled pattern continues with almost a rinse
and repeat of this week with a frontal passage likely on
Saturday, followed by another potential closed low moving
offshore on Monday. The greatest chance for showers comes
Saturday afternoon with a frontal passage and enhanced PWATs
with origins in the Gulf of Mexico, with hit or miss showers
possible Sunday with a hint of some weak upper level ridging
possible. This is followed by another deepening trough over the
eastern seaboard renewing chances for showers Sunday night into
Monday. Temps look to remain slightly above normal with highs
generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next few hours. Winds throughout the period will range
between southeast to southwest between 5 and 10 knots, with a
few gusts 15 to 18 knots at KBTV. Some showers currently moving
through the airspace. Showers will be likely across the region
between 14z and 00z as frontal boundary lifts north and then
stalls near the international border. In heavier elements, 3-6SM
visibility and ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl will be possible.

Some partial clearing and lifting ceilings follow the warm
front 10z-12z, but where warm front stalls is not entirely
certain. Therefore, the forecast maintains VCSH for several
terminals. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
about 18z. A weak trough will shift south, with convection near
the trough and lifting north-northeast towards the trough axis
until it passes south sometime near or after 00z Wednesday. It`s
too far out now, but some thunderstorms could be strong, and
there will be potential for ceiling and visibility reductions
between 18z beyond 00z Wednesday. Some BR is likely to form
overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles