-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
794
FXUS61 KBTV 171707
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
107 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible along the international border this
afternoon as a stationary boundary lifts north. Chances for showers
and a few rumbles of thunder increase tonight into Saturday as a
weak disturbance aloft passes through the region. Drier conditions
follow for Sunday and continue into early next week with
temperatures warming to summer-like levels in the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1003 AM EDT Friday...The forecast for today remains in
good shape with plentiful sunshine allowing for temperatures to
warm quickly this morning. Additional showers, with some rumbles
of thunder, are expected across northern Vermont this afternoon
but most locations should remain dry as initially expected.

Previous Discussion...A nearly stationary boundary that has
been the focus for showers and thunderstorms the past few days
will finally lift north of the international border this morning
as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Some isolated
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder are possible close to the
boundary across north-central and northeast Vermont this
afternoon, but coverage should be fairly limited with a lack of
any appreciable mid-level moisture. Otherwise, mid/high clouds
will be on the increase through the day from west to east, but
shouldn`t inhibit steep low-level lapse rates from developing
supporting warm air aloft to mix to the surface and produce
widespread highs in the mid 70s with locally around 80 at KBTV.

Late in the day and into tonight, guidance has come into better
agreement as compared to yesterday supporting a weak mid-level
shortwave trough dropping into the region. With dry air in place it
will take some time to saturate the atmosphere enough to support
rain, with the best chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm
being across the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley through
midnight. Thereafter, guidance diverges in regard to the potential
for Atlantic moisture working inland on southeasterly flow
interacting with the aforementioned trough pushing eastward through
New England. The NAM3 and HRRR are quite aggressive with this
moisture producing widespread rain showers across much of Vermont
late tonight into Saturday, with some support from the ECMWF, while
the GDPS and GFS are basically dry. Considering this is a large
shift from yesterdays guidance, will just offer some low chance PoPs
for now, but this will need to be monitored by the next shift as
Saturday could end up much wetter. Low tonight should be similar to
this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and depending on clouds and
precip, high Saturday could be as warm as the low/mid 70s if dry, or
stuck in the 60s if more precipitation develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature
drier weather with warmer than normal temperatures. Surface and
upper level ridging over the area will lead to some sunshine as well
as temperatures warming into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon. Will
need to keep in mind potential for fog Saturday night with partial
clearing and light winds also. Precipitation chances are nil for
both Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather pattern with persistent warming
trend will continue into the first half of next week. Monday and
Tuesday will be quite warm as surface and upper level ridging build
over the north country. Highs will reach the lower 80s for the first
time in this calendar year across much of our area. These
temperatures will lead to some surface based instability, so may
need to add chances for afternoon showers but for now have a dry
forecast. Better chances for precipitation will be Wednesday into
Thursday as a low pressure system passes through the Great Lakes
region then passes to our northwest. Still quite far out, but will
monitor potential for thunderstorms with frontal passage. Latest
model runs are indicating best chance for showers will be on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions and light southerly winds
are expected through the TAF period. A few showers with embedded
rumbles of thunder will be possible across northern terminals
this afternoon but will be isolated and likely miss any given
TAF site. Brief reductions in visibilities to 2-5 SM will be
possible in these showers/thunderstorms but again these will
likely miss our terminals this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay