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037
FXUS61 KBTV 140522 AAC
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next couple
of days with several rounds of showers, with numerous showers
and some embedded thunderstorms expected tomorrow. Seasonable
high temperatures and mild overnight lows are expected for much
of the upcoming week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 110 AM EDT Tuesday...Have adjusted forecast to reflect
current radar trends, increasing pops where it`s presently
raining to begin with. Rain is mainly light to moderate, but has
also been briefly heavy in some locations. Temperatures will
remain mild overnight with SLK close to a record warm minimum
temperature.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Model soundings for tomorrow show tall
and skinny CAPE profiles, supporting the idea of some heavy
downpours and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, with
PWAT values in excess of an inch. Current QPF amounts range from
a few tenths to near an inch, with localized higher amounts
expected in any thunderstorms. The latest CAM guidance suggests
CAPE values between 500 to 1200 J/kg across southern portions of
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures warming into the
70s. Meanwhile closer to the International Border, temperatures
will only warm into the upper 60s. There is still a little
uncertainty regarding the instability across the region tomorrow
afternoon as lingering cloud cover will limit surface heating.
There is the potential for training storm motions with any
developing convection, which will need to be monitored given the
potential for heavier downpours. While widespread severe is not
currently anticipated, NCAR is showing a non-zero threat for
some severe weather and there will likely be plenty of activity
to monitor tomorrow afternoon. Shower activity will dwindle
heading into the evening with the lack of diurnal heating, with
overnight lows expected to be quite mild for this time of year.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 402 PM EDT Monday...ANother round of showers is expected
for much of Wednesday as a cut off low becomes stuck over the
Mid- Atlantic region. This slow moving low pressure system is
expected to drape a warm frontal boundary across our forecast
area which should allow for shower activity to increase
throughout the day on Wednesday given modest heating under
cloudy skies. Thermal profiles have varied from run to run but
it seems we will be looking at closer to moist adiabatic lapse
rates which in this case likely won`t favor thunderstorms. Could
a rumble of thunder occur? Possibly, but most likely we should
just see scattered to numerous showers on Wednesday. The main
focus on rainfall accumulations will be across southern Vermont
where we could see a quarter to maybe a third of an inch of rain
but lesser amounts as you get closer to the International
Border. Shower activity is expected to wane as we head into
Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating but a few
showers will likely continue through the overnight period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 402 PM EDT Monday...Thursday had been looking drier for a
while but the latest guidance suggests it may not be as dry as
we had been thinking. The stall frontal boundary mentioned in
the above section will remain over the area on Thursday. We
better heating due to slightly less cloud cover, a resurgence of
shower activity is expected during the afternoon hours. It
won`t be as widespread as Wednesday but isolated to scattered
showers could drop some light rain throughout the day with
thunderstorm potential again looking rather meager. Friday, on
the other hand, has trended a little drier as the 12Z guidance
is showing building 500 mb heights in response to a deepening
trough over the central US. Increasing subsidence is expected to
keep shower activity largely at bay although a few diurnal
showers cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Saturday as
the aforementioned trough slides eastward and we see a series of
frontal boundaries move through the region. With good fetch of
Gulf of Mexico moisture, we could see some heavy rain showers
this weekend but the details will be ironed out over the next
several days. Those with outdoor weekend plans are encourages to
keep a close eye on the forecast. This period of unsettled
weather is likely to continue well into next week with a series
of disturbances likely to pass near the northeastern US. The
good news is that we aren`t expecting any significant rainfall
so flooding doesn`t look to be a concern moving forward.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next few hours. Winds throughout the period will range
between southeast to southwest between 5 and 10 knots, with a
few gusts 15 to 18 knots at KBTV. Some showers currently moving
through the airspace. Showers will be likely across the region
between 06z and 10z as frontal boundary lifts north and then
stalls near the international border. In heavier elements, 3-6SM
visibility and ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl will be possible.
Patches of low level wind shear will develop behind the warm
front from about 04z to 10z for 35 to 40 knot southwest winds at
2000 ft agl.

Some partial clearing and lifting ceilings follow the warm
front 10z-12z, but where warm front stalls is not entirely
certain. Therefore, the forecast maintains VCSH for several
terminals. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
about 18z. A weak trough will shift south, with convection near
the trough and lifting north-northeast towards the trough axis
until it passes south sometime near or after 00z Wednesday. It`s
too far out now, but some thunderstorms could be strong, and
there will be potential for ceiling and visibility reductions
between 18z beyond 00z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles