-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
171
FXUS61 KBTV 170530
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks
in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High
pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this
weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our
first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the overnight with river valley fog forming,
especially across Vermont. Low temps will be widely variable
from the upper 40s across the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont,
to mid/upper 50s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

We will finally see the frontal boundary that`s been over our
area lift north today as a a developing upper level ridge
finally displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic
coastline. This should shift the shower activity north of the
International Border on Friday but another round of showers is
expected to move in from the west Friday night with the main
focus of the shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring
the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a
moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday
catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability
is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of
thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday
afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5
degrees above climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging
will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the
first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing
temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in
producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all
goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the
BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s
across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher
elevations for those days, particularly Monday.

The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a
frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow
high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06Z Saturday...The main aviation concern for the period
will be overnight MVFR/IFR fog which will be up and down at
KSLK and more prevalent at KMPV and KEFK where visibility could
go as low as LIFR. After 11-12Z, fog lifts and VFR is expected
thereafter for the remainder of the period under SCT/BKN
mid/high clouds. Winds will be nearly calm overnight with the
exception of the typical southeast drainage wind at KRUT, then
winds trend SSE at all sites during the daylight hours at
5-10kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Lahiff