-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
922
FXUS61 KBTV 161139
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary boundary remains over our region today with some
scattered light rain showers. The forecast trends drier to close
out the week. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward,
with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week
expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 718 AM EDT Thursday...Have issued a special weather
statement for patchy dense fog this morning. Anticipate fog will
lift by about 10am. No other changes this morning. Previous
discussion follows.

Weak stationary boundary will remain in place today, leading
to some scattered light rain showers possible for most of the
day. Front will finally shift south and east of the region
tonight, and drier weather will return for tonight and Friday.
Some ridging begins to work into the region today, therefore
don`t expect as many showers today as the past couple days. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Could see some fog development again overnight, but shouldn`t be
as widespread as this morning since we`ll be a day removed from
the heavier precipitation and ridging will help us start to dry
out. A dry and pleasant day is expected for Friday with high
temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals as
maximum temperatures reach the lower to upper 70s. Will have
increasing chances for showers late in the day in our far
western zones with next approaching system.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...Deterministic guidance continues to
be split in regard to precipitation chances for Friday night
through Saturday with notable differences seen in the track of a
mid-level shortwave trough. Drier solutions track this feature
north of the international border, while the wetter ones dip the
track across northern portions of the North Country and
Vermont. Ensemble members seem to lean more towards the wetter
solutions so have bumped PoPs a bit into the 40- 60% range
across the North Country with lower chances of 20-30% across
northern VT. A few rumbles of thunder additionally can`t be
ruled out Friday night, though mainly in the St. Lawrence
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...A significant warming trend is then
expected for the latter half of the weekend through at least
Tuesday as guidance continues to trend towards a stronger
mid/upper level ridge building across the Northeast. Ensemble
probabilities of max temps greater than 75 degrees increase each
day from 60-80% of the members on Sunday, to 70-90% for Monday
and Tuesday with 2/3rds of members showing potential for highs
greater than 80 degrees in the wider valleys. The good news is
that dewpoints don`t look to be particularly high, only in the
50s, so humidity should be relatively comfortable. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday with the
potential for a strong frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Saturated ground, copious low level
moisture and light winds led to fog formation similar overnight.
After 14z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont,
except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New
York. Winds speeds should generally stay below 10 knots. A few
showers will develop, mainly near the international border about
15z to 23z. Will need to monitor potential for fog formation
once again tonight.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles