-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
359
FXUS61 KBTV 141426
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1026 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next few
days with several rounds of showers, with numerous showers and
some embedded thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Seasonable
high temperatures and mild overnight lows are expected for much
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1006 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. The main concern for today continues to be
the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially this
afternoon into the evening hours. The warm front lies draped
just to our north, as evidenced by a stream of clouds and
showers stretching along the international border. Skies have
cleared over the southern half of our forecast area; the
question will be how far north this clearing will spread this
afternoon, as this is where the best shear lies. Latest guidance
and current expectations are that while the northern tier of
counties will stay pretty cloudy, areas along/just south of the
cloud deck will have a chance of at least some modest heating
and destabilization. This area, stretching from the eastern
Adirondacks into north- central VT, may be just close enough to
the strongest shear to allow some thunderstorms to become strong
to perhaps marginally severe, capable of producing strong
winds. Further south, shear won`t be enough to allow for more
robust development, and northern areas will remain stable. So
while the chances are slight and the most- favorable area
small, there is the potential for a few stronger storms this
afternoon/evening. Note that the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook
from SPC did upgrade northern VT and far northeastern NY into a
Marginal Risk, which seems to match our thinking.

All that being said, regardless of severe potential, any
thunderstorms today will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. While PWATs aren`t extreme, there will still be ample
moisture pooling along the front, and any training of storms
would allow for footprints of higher rainfall amounts. Flooding
is not anticipated, but some ponding of water in poor-drainage
areas will be possible where any training occurs. We will be
watching trends closely through the day.

Previous discussion...A warm front situated near the
international border will be focus for showers this morning.
Clouds and showers will be ongoing at sunrise, and continue into
the morning hours. Eventually surface boundary will sink
southward, and we could see some thunderstorms with the frontal
passage. At this time think we`ll just see some garden variety
thunderstorms. There`s not a lot of strong winds aloft, and much
of the convection looks like it will be elevated. Lingering
cloud cover during the morning hours, especially across our
northern zones, may limit surface based instability.
Temperatures in parts of southern Vermont will be close to the
80 degree mark. Will need to monitor potential for heavy
downpours, especially in areas that have more than one
thunderstorm cross the location. Shower activity will die down
following sunset with remaining instability going away. Showers
will continue into the overnight and even into the day
Wednesday, though chance for thunder diminishes. Temperatures
will remain mild overnight with plenty of cloud cover remaining
in place and some showers ongoing. Then temperatures on
Wednesday will be not quite as warm as today as a surface cold
front will also cross our area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast for the latter half of
the work week is relatively unchanged from the previous thinking
with the main features of interest being a stalling frontal
boundary over the region and an upper low closing off over the
eastern seaboard. Afternoon convection on Wednesday associated
with the stalling surface boundary will gradually dissipate in
the evening with the loss of daytime heating and much of
Wednesday night should be dry and mild with min temps only in
the 50s. As the front stalls over the region on Thursday in
response to the upper low closing off, additional showers will
develop from mid-day through the afternoon but as mid- level
heights rise towards the evening with the approach of a weak
mid-level ridge we should see showers rapidly dissipate. Dry
conditions follow for Thursday night through Friday with the
ridge in place, allowing for temperatures to remain above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early
next week, our unsettled pattern continues with almost a rinse
and repeat of this week with a frontal passage likely on
Saturday, followed by another potential closed low moving
offshore on Monday. The greatest chance for showers comes
Saturday afternoon with a frontal passage and enhanced PWATs
with origins in the Gulf of Mexico, with hit or miss showers
possible Sunday with a hint of some weak upper level ridging
possible. This is followed by another deepening trough over the
eastern seaboard renewing chances for showers Sunday night into
Monday. Temps look to remain slightly above normal with highs
generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next few hours. Winds throughout the period will range
between southeast to southwest between 5 and 10 knots, with a
few gusts 15 to 18 knots at KBTV. Some showers currently moving
through the airspace. Showers will be likely across the region
between 14z and 00z as frontal boundary lifts north and then
stalls near the international border. In heavier elements, 3-6SM
visibility and ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl will be possible.

Some partial clearing and lifting ceilings follow the warm
front 10z-12z, but where warm front stalls is not entirely
certain. Therefore, the forecast maintains VCSH for several
terminals. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
about 18z. A weak trough will shift south, with convection near
the trough and lifting north-northeast towards the trough axis
until it passes south sometime near or after 00z Wednesday. It`s
too far out now, but some thunderstorms could be strong, and
there will be potential for ceiling and visibility reductions
between 18z beyond 00z Wednesday. Some BR is likely to form
overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles