133
FXAK69 PAFG 160931
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 AM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather will be gradually quieting down across the state as
temps remain seasonal over the Interior and a strong storm out
west continues to weaken today. A fairly quiet breakup
continues, however ice remains thick along the Lower Yukon which
will continue to be monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large upper trough over Siberia and extending into the
West Coast with a 983 mb low moving up into the Chukchi Sea. Over
the Eastern Interior, there is a 550 dam upper level ridge in
place which is bringing the nice and quiet weather to the
Interior. South winds behind the departing arctic low will wane
today out west.

Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement with the upper air and surface
flow for the next few days. The Hi-res models were favored for
winds and a blend for precip, with consensus blend models for
RH/POPS. We will introduce an isolated thunderstorm threat for
Saturday for parts of the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet weather today as a cool front shifts east to near Tanana
today, thus increasing cloud cover somewhat from yesterday.
Otherwise, winds are weakening across the Alaska Range with the
front shifting east today. Isolated showers in the afternoon will
be possible by Friday with more afternoon showers and a slight
chance for thunderstorms by Saturday, along with warming temps Fri
and Sat.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
South winds continue today but weaken as the low responsible
shifts north into the Chukchi. Temps will remain above seasonal
norms today with highs getting close to the record of 40 for
Utqiagvik. Winds turn back to east northeasterly Saturday with
temps falling back to normal, along with increased stratus and
possible fog chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The strong storm is weakening and shifting north today. A mix of
rain and snow showers continue through today and then taper off
tonight. A low will skirt the West Coast on Friday bringing rain
and snow showers mainly to Saint Lawrence Island. There will be a
scattering of rain showers across mainly the Interior as temps
slowly warm. Otherwise, the coast looks predominantly dry and
quiet Fri into the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Some form of Interior ridging looks to be in place Sunday with
weak troughing over the West Coast. The GFS and ECMWF are much
more bullish on this scenario than the outlier Canadian, but
should this pattern develop it looks like it will warmup up next
week over the Interior with a couple shots for some 70 degree
readings. It looks wet and cooler out west as a storm possibly
moves in Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values over the Interior tanked into the teens today. They
will remain in the upper teens to low 20s today over the E
Interior, but will rise over the Central Interior with more
clouds, cooler temps, and a shift in wind. With weakening AK Range
gradients fire weather conditions do not look like they will reach
critical values, but it will remain dry over the Interior today
with only some spotty Interior showers Fri, with a slight
chance/isolated thunderstorm chance Sunday for the E Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers north of the Yukon are starting to see some break up, but
with warming temperatures through this weekend that could start
to change by the weekend. The Yukon River upstream of Pilot
Station is partially open with mainly weak and rotting ice left
which lessens the chances of ice jams.

There was a report from Emmonak Tuesday evening stating that
river levels have been rising. There was still about 8 inches of
snow on top of the ice and people are still snow machining across
the river with about 3 feet of ice at Nunam Iqua last week. The
ice has not moved or broken in any way from Emmonak to Mountain
Village. Due to this strong ice in place, this will be an area of
ice jam concern in the future.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-816-851-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-850-853-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

$$

Ahsenmacher