979
FXAK69 PAFG 122239
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers willd develop over the Interior on
Sunday along with a chance of an isolated thunderstorm. A strong
front will likely impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and
blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Unsettled weather will
continue for the west coast Wednesday and Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Troughing persist over the north slope and a closed low in the
Gulf of Alaska. A shortwave s lifting north over the Eastern
Interior today. Ridging will build over the west coast on Sunday.
Weak troughing will persist over the Interior on Monday then
ridging slides to the east and a strong upper trough will push
into the west coast Tue into Thursday.


West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through
the weekend. Highs inland in the 50s and 30s near the coast.
Scattered to numerous showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm in the western Alaska Range on Sunday and Monday. A
strong front will begin to impact the west coast on Tuesday with
strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow for Saint
Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued for potential impacts. Winter Storm Watches
have been issued for Saint Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and
the Seward Penn. Southerly winds could gust between 30 and 55 mph and
there could be near Blizzard conditions on Saint Lawrence Island
and the Bering Strait. Snow and strong winds will develop over
the Seward Penninsula, Yukon Delta coast and Northwest Alaska
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. There is the possibility of mixed
precipitation along the coast as well as elevated surf impacts for
Eastern Norton Sound and along the Yukon Delta coast. Chances for
precip will continue into Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along
the thermal trough. On Tuesday showers will be confined to
the Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior.
No precip expected on Wednesday. Highs in the upper 50s through
Tuesday and in the lower 60s on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few
snow showers possible as well. Expect high temperatures in the
20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early
next week. The weather looks to remain pretty mundane through
Monday afternoon. Then Monday evening, we are monitoring a Bering
Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the West Coast. There
may be some winter weather impacts to the Chukchi Sea Coast,
especially Point Hope. Exact impacts are still uncertain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water
levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday
morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it
may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the
ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push
ashore as well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated
thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the
potential for a Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. Still some
uncertainty with this system but the strongest winds will be
in the Bering Strait.  There is a potential for strong southerly
winds along the West Coast with mixed precipitation and elevated
surf along the coast.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along
the thermal trough. Areas of rain are likely in the Eastern
Interior today with wetting rain likely from Delta Junction north
and east. Expect rainfall totals from Tok north and east around
0.25 to 0.50 inches with lesser amounts towards Delta Junction.
Rainfall totals in the Fairbanks Bowl will lie around 0.05 to
0.10 inches with slightly higher amounts near 0.15 inches in the
Eastern Interior.


.HYDROLOGY...
Ice jam near Circle has released and everything is moving
downstream. Flood watch will be cancelled this afternoon. The
gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort
Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
&&

$$