686
FXAK69 PAFG 162244
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upcoming weather pattern will generally favor more
calm conditions across the West Coast, Interior and Northern
Slope. Temperatures should remain seasonable throughout the next
few days, with some above normal temperatures possible early next
week across the Interior. The strong storm across the West Coast
will continue to weaken with only some lingering precipitation
across the Western Brooks Range into the Lisburne Peninsula and
the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-air analysis from this afternoon continues to show ridging
over the Eastern Interior that extends into the Beaufort Sea.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is moving over northern Siberia
that will gradually dig towards the Bearing Sea. By Friday, another
low will develop in Gulf of Alaska that will cut off the upper-level
ridge across the Eastern Interior to an extent. This weak trough
quickly pushes further to the south and east into Saturday with the
upper-level ridge building back towards the Gulf of Alaska. By this
time, the trough moving through the Bearing Sea will be approaching
the Alaska Peninsula by late Saturday evening. This should allow
enough moisture to return northward that we could see some isolated
thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday for parts of the Interior.
Aside from this, the main story for the Interior will be the warming
temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

For the northern slope, southerly winds responsible for the above
normal temperatures will began will begin to weaken as the pressure
gradient begins to relax some. Winds will gradually shift back to
the east to northeast by Saturday with temperatures falling back to
a more normal range.

As mentioned above, precipitation will remain possible this evening
for the West Coast and Western Interior before tapering off later
tonight. The aforementioned low moving into the Bearing Sea could
bring some rain and snow showers to St. Lawrence Island on Friday,
however, the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta region should remain
fairly dry with only low end PoPs. Aside from this, much of the West
Coast remains dry and quiet as we move into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values across the Eastern Interior have remained low today,
with values in the upper teens to upper 20s while the remainder of
the interior was in the 30 to 40 percent range. RH values will
increase some on Friday, especially along the Alaska Range with
similar conditions remaining for Saturday. While things will be
somewhat dry, winds should remain low enough to not warrant a
significant fire weather concern at this time into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A crew went to the Yukon River yesterday and reported the river was
flowing very well at the Dalton Highway despite some large chunks
still moving downstream. Most of the rivers north of the Yukon River
to the Koyukuk River remain mostly ice free with some ice chunks on
the banks. Aside from that, things continue to show improvement.

We did have some reports come in today that the Nome River in Nome
has some minor flooding that we believe was due to the the recent
storm system that moved through and snow melt.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-812-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$