249
FXAK69 PAFG 151025
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather
across the Interior today and tomorrow. A strong front is
currently impacting the West Coast with very strong wind, snow and
near blizzard conditions in some spots. Snow will mix with rain
at times from Nome south and east today. Unsettled weather will
continue for the West Coast through Thursday. The North Slope will
be breezy from Anaktuvuk Pass to Utqiagvik and points west with
the worst conditons around Point Hope.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Ridging will set up over the Interior and eastern Beaufort Sea
Coast today and move east over the AlCan tomorrow. A strong upper
low is over eastern Russia with a front impacting the West Coast
through tomorrow. The front gradually moves inland and towards the
Central Interior on Thursday. Broad troughing will remain over
the Bering through Friday. Models are in line in the short-term
then begin to diverge over the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The strong front has brought impactful weather to portions of the
West Coast and will continue through the day today. Wind gusts as
high as 55-65 mph will continue for the Bering Strait and St.
Lawrence Island this morning then diminish through the afternoon.
Winter Storm Warnings have been upgraded to Blizzard Warnings for
the Bering Strait and will prevail through midday before improving
this afternoon and evening. The entire West Coast will be much
improved by tonight as this low exits to the north. Thursday will
be a nicer day overall with winds continuing to decrease, but
there will be a chance for rain and snow showers through the day.
Heading into Friday, we will be monitoring another low dropping
southeast out of Russia. This looks to be much weaker but may
provide another round of snow and wind in St. Lawrence Island.
From there, the models diverge a bit, but they are honing in on
this low then traversing southeast towards Bristol Bay. Therefore,
the Seward Pen. may be spared this time around. There is still
some uncertainty with specific impacts and those will be ironed
out today or tomorrow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Much quieter weather today and tomorrow as high pressure
dominates. There will be no precipitation across the Interior
today, then a chance for rain showers from Bettles to Minchumina
tomorrow. Temperatures will be warming up as highs get into the
low to mid 60s in most spots, and near the upper 60s by Fort
Yukon. Friday looks to be another nice day overall, but showers do
begin to pop up, especially over the terrain.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
A Bering Sea Low will bring a strong front to Point Hope through
this evening. Snow has begun in Point Hope and southerly winds
will increase this morning with gusts as high as 65 mph possible
through this evening. There is a chance that the snow mixes with
rain overnight as temperatures warm up, marking an end to most of
the blowing snow, but the winds will remain strong through
Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a
Blizzard Warning. Northeast of Point Hope, there won`t be much in
the way of snow, but it will be breezy from Deadhorse west to
Barrow with peak gusts around 30-35 mph this afternoon into
Thursday morning. Temperatures will be warming up today and
Thursday as well. Expect high temperatures in the mid 30s along
the coast and mid 40s to low 50s in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels 3 to 5 feet above normal will be dropping to near
normal levels on Friday.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Not much has changed with the 00z model runs past day 4. However,
the ensembles seem to be locked in on a low coming out of Russia,
then over or just south of St. Lawrence Island and into the YK
Delta Friday into Saturday. This could bring another round of snow
and wind to St. Lawrence Island and portions of the YK Delta, but
it will be weakening on its way there Saturday, so there is some
uncertainty with impacts farther south. It looks like troughing
persists on the West Coast through Sunday, then ridging may try to
build in thereafter, though it may be geared more towards the
Interior for ridging, keeping the West Coast in a troughing
pattern.

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precip expected today with only a chance for showers from
Bettles to Minchumina on Thursday. Highs in the low to mid 60s
today and Thursday. Minimum RH`s will be around 25-35% today with
the lowest around Fairbanks. Similar story tomorrow with 25-35%
minimum RH, but the lowest will be stationed from Tok east. Gusty
winds around 20 to 30 mph are possible from Delta Junction south,
and in the AK Range this evening into Thursday morning.

.HYDROLOGY...
Mild breakup continues on the mid Yukon River and are expected to
continue. The series of jams downstream of Nulato released and
water/chunk ice are freely flowing downstream. A few rotted sheets
of ice remained on the north bank of Halfway Island but most of
the water and chunk ice are swiftly moving along the south bank.
Nulato has reported no impacts and water levels at Koyukuk and
Galena were holding steady. The last observation in Galena
reported a water level of 113.0 feet which indicates no rise in
level since the morning reading yesterday. Ice has started moving
in Pilot Station and river levels rose approximately 2 feet. River
levels remained well below bank and there was approximately 10
feet before reaching bankfull conditions. There was a report from
Emmonak Tuesday evening stating that river levels have been
rising. There is still about 8 inches of snow on top of the ice
and people are still snow machining across the river with about 3
feet of ice at Nunam Iqua last week. The ice has not moved or
broken in any way from Emmonak to Mountain Village.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-825-826.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-803-816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-852-853-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-809-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Bianco