770
FXAK69 PAFG 170933
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 AM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Overall, fairly benign weather conditions will continue the next
few days, with warming temps out west after today. It will remain
seasonal over the Interior with afternoon shower threats along
with isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly over the higher
elevation terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a fairly narrow Interior ridge positioned over the ALCAN
and into the Beaufort Sea, with heights at the center around 553
dam. There is a large upper low complex over Siberia and the
Chukchi Sea with heights around 521 dam. There is a broad upper
low over the Gulf of AK with heights around 542 dam. At the
surface, the main low center remains over the Bering Sea with a
low of 999 mb over the W Bering Sea, and another Chukchi low
around 998 mb, north of Wrangel Island.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in good synoptic agreement
through Saturday then they begin to diverge Sunday as a low in the
Gulf shifts east, and some of that energy forms a surface low over
the SE Interior. Models are all over the place with the details of
that low, but the general consensus is there will be a chance for
more sustained and heavier precipitation sometime Sunday and
Sunday night over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range, this we will
utilize a blend by that point. Prior to that, hi-res models were
favored for winds and precip chances as we enter a showery regime
for the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will be fairly similar as yesterday with high temps in the
mid 60s along with a bit more clouds today. There will be shower
chances this afternoon favoring the higher elevation mountains,
and an outside shot for isolated thunderstorms over the Fortymile
Uplands. Saturday is warmer with a better chance for isolated
thunderstorms over larger swaths of the Interior as east flow
develops.

A developing low Sunday will bring increased chances for heavy
showers and rain (higher elevation snow over the E Alaska Range)
over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying trend continues today and then it begins to gradually warm
tomorrow into the weekend as a low dives into Bristol Bay and then
the Gulf of AK, which will switch winds from southerly to easterly
then northerly Sat into Sun. Spotty showers will be possible Sat
and Sun with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the
Interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The warmer chinook pattern will end today and then east-northeast
winds increase Sat and Sun as an arctic high strengthens. Th is
will likely bring in periods of stratus and fog. Temps will fall
back closer to seasonal norms with this pattern.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast by Monday looks fairly messy with several
upper level lows rotating around the Mainland. There will likely
be continued chances for Interior showers and isolated
thunderstorms before a deep upper low and surface low develop
Tuesday and move into the West Coast and shift inland Wednesday.
The E Interior will likely see some degree of chinook warming Tue
and maybe into Wednesday, but the details are just too far out to
hash out at this juncture.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some scattered showers with a slight chance for isolated thunder
today develop mainly over the higher elevations of the Interior
over the Fortymile Uplands to the White Mtns. Min RH values
continue to rise slowly into the 20 percent range. Temps rise Sat
and Sun and there will be south gap winds to 20 mph sustained, but
critical fire weather conditions are not expected to occur.
Isolated thunderstorm chances expand to the W Interior Sun as the
thermal trough shifts west. Moderate chances for wetting rains
develop Sun over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains out west have caused some areas to see localized
flooding near ice-covered rivers and streams. This should abate
with drying weather over the next few days. The Yukon remains ice
covered toward the Delta and may see concerns in the future.
However, upstream rivers are not running high with mostly ice
chunks and rotting ice, so significant ice jam threats do not
look high at this juncture.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.

PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher