224
FXAK69 PAFG 181136
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 AM AKDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon across the Interior along the thermal trough.
Showers become more numerous southeast of Fairbanks on Sunday.
Still a slight threat of isolated thunderstorms for the Interior
on Sunday. A front will impact the west coast late Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Broad troughing will persist over the southern Bering with
a closed 525 dam low. Weak southerly flow aloft over the Interior
on Saturday. The upper low over the Bering will track quickly
east into the Gulf of Alaska and swing moisture across the
southeast portion of the Interior. High pressure will rebuild
over the Interior on Monday and troughing will persist over
the west coast through mid week. Models begin to diverge in
the extended.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered afternoon showers and Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon across the Interior along the thermal trough.
Showers become more numerous southeast of Fairbanks on Sunday.
Still a slight threat of isolated thunderstorms for the Interior
on Sunday. Weak gap flow will develop on Saturday and persist
into early Sunday morning. South winds will pick up near Delta
Junction around 20 to 30 mph. Not quite red flag conditions,
expecting low RH values to stay above 25 percent when the
strongest winds will occur. High temps in the mid to upper
60s this afternon and low to mid 60s on Sunday. A developing low
Sunday will bring increased chances for heavy showers over the SE
Interior on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying trend continues as a low dives into Bristol Bay and then
the Gulf of AK, which will switch winds from southerly to easterly
then northerly Sat into Sun. Spotty showers will be possible Sat
and Sun with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the
Interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East-northeast winds increase Sat and Sun as an arctic high
strengthens. This will likely bring in periods of stratus and
fog.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast by Monday looks fairly messy with several
upper level lows rotating around the Mainland. There will likely
be continued chances for Interior showers and isolated
thunderstorms before a deep upper low and surface low develop
Tuesday and move into the West Coast and shift inland Wednesday.
The E Interior will likely see some degree of chinook warming Tue
and maybe into Wednesday, but the details are just too far out to
hash out at this juncture.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some scattered showers with a slight chance for isolated thunder
today develop mainly over the higher elevations of the Interior
over the Fortymile Uplands to the White Mtns. Min RH values
continue to rise slowly into the 20 percent range. Temps rise Sat
and Sun and there will be south gap winds to 25 mph sustained,
but critical fire weather conditions are not expected to occur.
Isolated thunderstorm chances expand to the W Interior Sun as the
thermal trough shifts west. Moderate chances for wetting rains
develop Sun over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon remains ice covered toward the Delta and may see
concerns in the future. However, upstream rivers are not running
high with mostly ice chunks and rotting ice, so significant ice
jam threats do not look high at this juncture.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850-851.
&&

$$