099
FXAK69 PAFG 172224
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Overall model consensus this afternoon shows a low in the
Gulf of Alaska which has forced the upper-level ridging over Eastern
Alaska to retreat to the north some. Meanwhile, a large upper-level
trough remains is moving into the Bearing Sea with a small shortwave
trough near the Seward Peninsula into the Western Interior. This
pattern has generally kept things quiet weather wise for the region
despite some showers popping up over the White Mountains this
afternoon. The upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska will quickly
dig into southeast Alaska which in turn will allow the upper-level
ridge to dig back to the south towards the Gulf of Alaska through
the day Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough over the Bearing
Sea will gradually push towards the Alaska Peninsula during the day
Saturday before crossing into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon
and then tracking more easterly towards southeast Alaska into
Monday. Model discrepancy increases as we head into next week, but
the overall theme would have a few upper-level lows moving through
the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Central and Eastern Interior...
We did increase temperatures some across the Interior for this
afternoon based off some current trends, however, the overall
story remains the same with temperatures in the mid 60s with some
developing CU in the Tanana Valley with some showers over the
White Mountains. Saturday could be slightly warmer than today with
a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will
be the best chance for thunderstorm activity for the Interior as
a low pressure system cuts through the region. This will also
bring some snow over the eastern Alaska Range and some portions of
the southeast Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Still seeing more calm and drier conditions across the West Coast
this afternoon that should continue into the remainder of the
weekend despite the approaching trough to the west, with the
exception of St. Lawrence Island that could still see some
precipitation through tonight. We will also see a warming trend
across the West Coast as we head into the weekend with increasing
chances for precip for the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Above normal conditions will come to an end as chinook winds
begin to end this evening with east to northeast winds increasing
for both Saturday and Sunday due the strengthening of the Arctic
High. As a result, we should see a return of some stratus and fog
to the northern slope with temperatures returning to more of a
normal range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible for most of the Interior for
Saturday with increasing chances for Sunday. RH values on Saturday
will bottom out around the lower to mid 20 percent range for the
Yukon Flats and northern Alaska Range southeastward to Northway. The
rest of the Interior will be in the upper 20 to upper 30 percent
range. Similar conditions will be seen for Sunday across the same
areas. Gap winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday morning
for across the Alaska Range, however, the peak of the winds will
come during a time when RH values are increased and should weaken
before we reach our min RH values, so no Red Flag concerns as of
right now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
We have seen some hydrology concerns across the West Coast from the
heavy rains near ice-covered rivers and streams. But we have seen
improvement with the dry weather that is in place. This trend will
continue as dry conditions will be in place through the weekend. The
Yukon remains ice covered towards the Delta, however, there is no
real concern of any ice jam at this point.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

BT