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FXAK69 PAFG 141043
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and isolated storms move to the Eastern Interior
today. Any shower or storm can come with briefly heavy rain and
some pea sized hail. A strong front will impact the west coast on
Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Snow
mixed with rain from Nome east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Unsettled weather will continue for the west coast Wednesday and
Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
The 00z models initiated well aloft with a shortwave trough
dipping southeast over the Western Interior today. Ridging over
the West Coast today will move east as a strong upper low glides
into the Central Bering this afternoon bringing a strong front to
St. Lawrence Island and the West Coast. Persistent troughing over
the North Slope will be booted out by brief ridging moving in
from the southwest this afternoon. Subtle troughing over the
Interior will traverse east this afternoon with ridging building
in behind it.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will begin to impact St. Lawrence Island around 8
to 10 AM with strong southerly winds, snow and blowing snow. It
gets into the Bering Strait around 3 to 6 PM and then over to Nome
by 7 PM. The strongest winds will begin to move through during
the afternoon and evening across the entire Bering Strait Region
and continue overnight. Southerly winds could gust up to 45 mph
around Nome with gusts near 60 mph for St. Lawrence Island and
the Bering Strait. Winds will begin to subside Wednesday morning
from West to East and any snow may begin to mix with rain from
Brevig Mission south and east marking an end to any blowing snow
concerns in those areas. From St. Lawrence Island to Wales, it may
remain all snow as cold air wraps in quickly behind the main
front.

North of the Bering Strait, winds will increase this morning with
the strongest winds expected this afternoon and evening around
Kivalina and Red Dog Mine. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible with
snow and blowing snow. The worst conditions in this area may end
up being around Red Dog Mine as strong winds and upslope result in
heavy snow and blowing snow, though Kivalina will also get strong
wind, just not as much snow.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisory`s have been
issued for all the locations that will see impactful winter
weather conditions.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Numerous showers with isolated storms move over the Eastern
Interior today. The greatest risk for thunderstorms will reside
from Salcha to just south of Circle and Chalkyitsik south to
Northway. Tok and Delta Junction will most likely be spared from
thunderstorms but will still have rain showers and downpours
around. Any shower or storm will likely come with briefly moderate
to heavy rain and erratic wind gusts up to 20-30 mph. Any storm
has the potential to come with pea sized hail. These continue
through about midnight then diminish in coverage. Wednesday looks
to be beautiful with partly to mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures getting into the low to mid 60s. Thursday will come
with plenty of sun as well as highs reaching the mid to upper
60s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
This evening, a Bering Sea Low will bring a strong front to the
West Coast. Snow is expected to begin in Point Hope around 10 PM
with southerly winds increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph.
The snow may mix with rain at times Wednesday afternoon, but the
winds will remain strong through Thursday morning. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for blowing snow in Point Hope.
Northeast of Point Hope, there won`t be much in the way of snow,
but it will be breezy from Deadhorse west to Barrow with peak
gusts around 30-35 mph Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be warming up Wednesday and Thursday as well.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 30s along the coast and mid
40s to low 50s in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal on Thursday will be
dropping gradually Friday and back to near normal levels on
Saturday.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are in slightly better agreement than yesterday for day 4
and beyond but there is still plenty of uncertainty. We will be
monitoring a chance for another low to move into the West Coast
Friday into Saturday as troughing persists. At this time, this low
looks to be much weaker than what we are currently going through.
Expect a few showers and maybe an isolated storm in the Interior
on Saturday with cooling temps on Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms move to the Eastern
Interior today. Any shower or storm has the chance to bring
localized wetting rain though most will produce 0.05" or less,
unless it is slow moving. Any storm can be accompanied by small
hail. No precip expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Highs in the
lower 60s on Wednesday with mid to upper 60s on Thursday. Minimum
RH`s around 25-35% today and will decrease to 20-30% on Wednesday
and Thursday. Winds remain relatively light, though any shower or
storm may cause some erratic winds with gusts as high as 20-30
mph possible.

.HYDROLOGY...
A mild breakup on the Yukon River will continue. No impacts have
been reported in Tanana, but there has been ice running for the
last 24 hours and the water has come up. Ice running past Ruby
made its way to Galena today. The water level in Galena rose 2
feet today and has been fluctuating around 114.0 feet since this
afternoon. A heavy run of bank-to-bank ice ran through Galena
during the afternoon. A large channel formed this afternoon around
Bishop Rock and allowed for a heavy run of ice to flow down river.
This run was about 40-45 miles long and extended down river past
Koyukuk near Last Chance. Water levels held steady near Koyukuk.
From Last Chance to Nulato, the river was mostly open with some
chunk ice but there was a series of jams down river of Nulato with
some improvement during the afternoon. Most of the ice has
released at the south bank of the Ninemile Island Jam, and the
jam at river mile 470 appeared weak and degraded. A small jam near
Halfway Island (river mile 460) started to move as well. Water
levels in Nulato were slowly rising but we have not heard of, or
seen any impacts. At Russian Mission, the river is mostly open
upstream but just below, there is a small ice jam. There is some
in place ice in Marshall with chunk ice packed in front of
Marshall. The main break up front is located 7 miles below
Marshall with water levels remaining low. Towards Pilot Station,
the river ice was intact but showed signs of movement and the ice
below Pilot Station appears stronger and more intact. A resident
in Pilot Station reported that the water levels have risen about 5
feet since Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855-858.
&&

$$

Bianco