872
FXAK69 PAFG 132234
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers willd develop over the Interior on
Monday along with isolated thunderstorms. Showers and Isolated
thunderstorms shift to the eastern Interior on Tuesday. A strong
front will impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing
snow along the Bering Strait. Snow mixed with rain from Nome east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue for
the west coast Wednesday and Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Troughing persist over the north slope and a closed low in the
Gulf of Alaska. Ridging will build over the west coast on Monday.
Weak troughing will persist over the Interior on Monday then
ridging slides to the east and a strong upper trough will push
into the west coast Tuesday into Thursday. Models are more in line
with the approaching low pressure system and models trending for
stronger surface winds for the west coast the last 2 model runs.


West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will begin to impact the west coast on Tuesday
with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow for Saint
Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Winter Storm Watches have
been upgraded to Warnings for Saint Lawrence Island, Bering
Strait and for Diomede. Southerly winds could gust between
30 and 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph for Saint Lawrence Island
and the Bering Strait.

Winter Weather Advisories for the Seward Penn. A mix of rain and
snow expected at Nome on Wednesday. Snow and strong winds will
develop over the Seward Penninsula, Yukon Delta coast and
Northwest Alaska Tuesday evening into Wednesday. There is the
possibility of elevated surf impacts for Eastern Norton Sound and
along the Yukon Delta coast. Chances for precip will continue
into Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon along the thermal trough. On Tuesday
showers will be confined to the Eastern Interior as high pressure
builds over the Interior. No precip expected on Wednesday. Highs
in the upper 50s through Tuesday and in the lower 60s on
Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few flurries
as well. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with
30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. Tuesday evening,
we are monitoring a Bering Sea Low which will bring a strong
front to the West Coast. There may be some winter weather impacts
to the Chukchi Sea Coast, especially Point Hope. Snow is expected
to begin in Point Hope around midnight with southerly winds
increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. The snow may mix
with rain at times on Wednesday, but the winds will remain strong
through Thursday morning. A Special Weather Statement is in effect
for coastal areas of Northwest Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A Bering Sea low with
strong southerly winds looks to bring water levels 3 to 5 feet
above the normal high tide line Wednesday morning through
Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it may not be enough
to bump it out of place, but water on top of the ice is a
possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push ashore as
well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are not in agreement for day 4 and beyond, but expect more
of the same in the Interior with showers and isolated storms and high
temperatures in the 50s/60s. Troughing looks to remain over the
West Coast and Western Interior with some active weather. Though
nothing looks particularly impactful this far out.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon along the thermal trough. On Tuesday
showers will be confined to the Eastern Interior as high pressure
builds over the Interior. No precip expected on Wednesday. Highs
in the upper 50s through Tuesday and in the lower 60s on
Wednesday. Minimum RH`s will be around 25-35% through Tuesday,
then decrease to 20-30% on Wednesday. Winds remain relatively
light, though any shower or storm may cause some erratic winds
with gusts as high as 25 mph possible.


.HYDROLOGY...
Ice jam near Circle has released and everything is moving
downstream. Ice and water released from the jam is expected to
reach Fort Yukon during the early morning hours, then proceed
down river. Ice had moved into Stevens Village yesterday
afternoon but was stopped at the Dalton Highway Bridge. Breakup is
expected at Stevens Village Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
Otherwise, a gradual breakup on the Upper Yukon is expected to
continue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-817-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$