Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
822 FXUS65 KLKN 161959 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1259 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry this evening as temperatures drop into the 40s to 50s. Friday also expected to be dry with temperatures reaching into the 60s to low 80s along with some afternoon breezes. Models are showing an upper level trough moving over Nevada by Saturday and into early next week, which may bring slightly cooler temperatures and potential for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Calm and dry weather expected tonight through Friday as near zonal flow in the upper air remains over the silver state. Temperatures tonight is expected to be slightly warmer on average of at least 3 to 5 degrees warmer in the upper 40s to 50s. Friday, dry and breezy with high temperatures in the 60s for northern Nevada and 70s to 80s everywhere else. Afternoon northwesterly/westerly breezes of 15-20 mph expected. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday. A weak upper-level trough combined with some mid-level Pacific moisture advected into central Nevada will bring some convection to portions of Nye County and White Pine COunty Saturday late morning and afternoon. PWAT values are marginal at best, only reaching to around 0.50". Enough for elevated convection but really too little for significant rainfall so a few dry thunderstorms are expected. A Lingering moisture will promote a few showers across east- central Nevada Sunday with additional afternoon chances for rain showers around 20% following a cold front that will drop temperatures into the upper 60s Sunday from the upper 70s Saturday. A general long wave troughing pattern across the western U.S. will persist next week allowing for cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s with lows int eh 30s and 40s. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing (50% chance or greater) in portions of Elko county Monday and Tuesday morning. Winds will && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light west winds (less than 10 knots) will develop during the day on Thursday across northern Nevada with even lighter northwest winds at KTPH and KELY under mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through the weekend with higher humidity and cooler temperatures next week as an upper level trough moves in over the state. Breezy afternoon winds from the northwest at 15-25 mph. && .HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures will continue to enhance snow melt in the remaining high mountain snow packs over the next several days, increasing the flow rates on several creeks and rivers. Bruneau River, Owyhee River and Mountain City, and Jarbidge River are currently in action stage and is expected to continue over the next several days as temperatures rise, further melting the remaining snow pack. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 97/93/93/97