Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
060 FXUS65 KLKN 130546 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1046 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A quick moving upper level trough will bring low chances at some scattered shower and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, before quieter weather moves in for the remainder of the week. Another system may affect the region for the weekend but uncertainty remains high with this possibility. && .UPDATE...Did a quick update for tonight as radar is showing light reflectivity echos across northern Humboldt county. In other locations quiet conditions will continue. No other updates planned. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1251 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024/ SHORT TERM...Sunday and Monday Upper level ridging will slowly shift east tonight as a quick moving upper level trough looks to transit the Pacific NW. For the remainder of tonight and into Monday morning a weak upper ridge axis will continue to shift eastward toward the Colorado Plateau. As evident in satellite imagery, and has been the usual the last few days, cumulus clouds are building in the mid levels as weak instability remains trapped by upper level subsidence from the ridge. This will begin to change Monday afternoon as quick moving yet weak upper level trough will transit the Pacific NW Monday through Tuesday morning. This system will push a cold front through NE Nevada Monday evening through Tuesday which will serve as a focus for a 10% to 30% chance at some scattered hit or miss showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. However, this front will mostly serve as a wind shift boundary as temperature behind the front wont be much cooler. Apart from the trapped mid level moisture, this system will have meager lower level moisture to work with. The best chances for showers look to be across northern Elko county Monday afternoon, and across the US-50 corridor as the front stalls out and eventually dissipates Tuesday. Amounts will be light, and not every one will see moisture, but up to 0.10 of rain could be received under stronger showers. Temperatures will remain above average running in the low 70 to low 80s for highs and dropping into the low 40s to low 50s for overnight lows. Winds will light out of the WNW tonight, Monday morning ahead of the front winds will be more westerly at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Monday evening when the front pushes through winds will shift back to the NW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday. AN upper-level disturbance and weak cold front will be pushing through northeastern Nevada Tuesday. The main focus area for convection will be across far eastern and central Nevada primarily south of US-50. Chances of appreciable rain remain quite low less than 10% of reaching or exceeding one tenth of an inch accumulation. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will impact northeastern Nevada with afternoon breezes of 15-20 mph. Temperatures will be only a couple of degrees cooler and still reach into the 70s, approaching 80 in some valleys. Benign weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday remaining dry although afternoon winds will be noticeable each day. Winds will start out from the north at 10-20 mph Wednesday becoming northwest Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be warm in the 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 40s and some lower 50s. Forecast uncertainty is still quite high regarding the weekend weather pattern evolution. Ensemble cluster analysis shows a larger spread and thus lower confidence in strength and position of upper-trough over the west over the weekend. Only 15-20% chance of rain is currently expected Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Also, the overall set up of the long-wave pattern tends to limit moisture transport into the Great Basin reducing at least probabilities of significant rainfall. Temperatures should fall a few degrees over the weekend owing to some cloud cover and lower 500 mb heights but still reach into the 70s with lows in the 40s. AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with light winds of 5KT to 15KT at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups will develop this afternoon with a few residual mid-level clouds through tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon across eastern Nevada including near KEKO and KELY but probability of any rain is still 20% at best. Chance of TS is even lower at KEKO Tuesday around 5% and 15% at KELY. HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. Warm temperatures in the low 70 to low 80s will start to erode the higher elevation snow pack, but overnight temperature will be cool enough to keep the melting from progressing to fast. The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next few days. Other rivers and creeks that are showing signs of increased flows are Lamoille Creek and the Jarbidge River. Though stream gage heights are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast and cold. With the warm temperatures expected this week, these stream heights will continue rising. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/99