Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
159 FXUS65 KLKN 140913 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 213 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of central NV, otherwise dry today with highs in the 70s. Dry with above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday across the region. Friday on through the weekend there will be increasing chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across central NV. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving up from the southwest will provide just enough moisture and instability for isolated (15-25% chance of) showers and thunderstorms across central NV this afternoon and early evening. Any storms that may develop today are expected to have limited precipitation, with only virga or light rain of up to a few hundredths of an inch of QPF. High temperatures continue to run 7-10 degrees above normal, with highs generally in the 70s today. Showers diminish by the mid evening hours, with clearing skies overnight, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Dry northwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday with afternoon highs again running nearly 10 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. All models are showing an upper level ridge across the eastern Pacific, extending into the Desert Southwest on Thursday. This pattern will keep things mainly quiet across northern and central Nevada through roughly Friday night and Saturday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s with Friday afternoon being the warmest. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Afternoons will be breezy with the strong winds felt on Friday with gusts to 35 mph. By the early portions of the weekend, model guidance is suggesting the potential for an upper level low encroaching upon the forecast area. This may bring up a bit of mid-level moisture into Nevada beginning on Saturday, affecting the local weather pattern Sunday and Monday with isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, significant widespread rainfall is not expected. Probability of any rainfall rather low, generally 25% or below for Saturday with slightly better opportunities for showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will cool as the low pressure system and cloud cover affect the state. Highs will still reach into the 70s with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...High-based showers and thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon, focused across central Nevada with vicinity thunderstorms in the TAF for KELY and KTPH. Ceilings remain well above 3000 feet, resulting in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through tonight and main concerns will be occasional lightning as well as gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds. Localized gusts up to 40KTS possible. Otherwise north/northwest afternoon breezes will be present at all terminals with gusts around 20KTS. Showers and thunderstorms as well as winds diminish between 02Z and 03Z. && .HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures this week will enhance melting of the remaining mountain snowpack, with increased flows expected on many area creeks and rivers including Lamoille Creek and the Jarbidge River. Though stream gage heights are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast and cold. The Humboldt River at Comus is forecast to remain in action stage today, then drop below action stage beginning Wednesday morning. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/86/92