544
FXUS65 KLKN 171030
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
330 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry today with gusty west to northwesterly winds in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperature will be cooler
today, though still above normal. Isolated thunderstorm activity
is expected over portions of central NV Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. A dry cold front will
drop in over northwesterly Humboldt county early this morning,
then progress southeasterly across the CWA today. Afternoon highs
will be a few degrees cooler today, but still above normal for
this time of year. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, with W-NW
winds of 10-20mph gusting 20-30mph. Some of the strongest winds
today will be across Elko county, with lighter though still gusty
winds across Humboldt county and much of central NV.

Saturday afternoon there is expected to be enough moisture,
instability and lift across east-central NV to produce cumulus
build-ups, and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity. Best
chances (10-25%) for isolated thunderstorms will be over White
Pine county and portions of northern Nye county, though there may
be a little convection reaching up into southern portions of Elko
county, as well as southern Eureka and possibly southern Lander
counties. Any cells that develop Saturday afternoon are expected
to be on the dry side, with either virga or possibly a few
hundredths of an inch of associated rain. Convection tapers off
in the early to mid-evening hours Saturday, with dry conditions
Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.

Upper wave and general troffing influence the forecast area early
next week, bringing modest sensible weather impacts to the Silver
State. Low probabilities for precipitation, 10 to 25 percent,
will be present during Sunday and Monday afternoons along with
west/northwesterly breezes, gusting 20 to 25 mph. Likely dry
Tuesday but increased probabilities for showers move in mid week
as a closed low continues to be advertised to move thru the PacNW
and at least skirt northern Nevada. Timing and strength of this
feature remains somewhat uncertain and low confidence is expressed
as various numerical solutions continue to struggle. Otherwise
continued afternoon west/northwesterly breezes will be present
thru the end of the week with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures a
few degrees cooler than average under the troffing pattern with
overnight lows widespread in the 30s for most thru the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected
for the next 24 hours. Stronger northwest winds of 15-20 knots
are expected to develop Friday as a weak cold front moves through
northern Nevada. Highest wind speeds will be across northeastern
Nevada including KEKO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures continue to enhance
melting of the remaining high mountain snowpack, which will in
turn result in elevated and at times increasing flows on streams
and creeks coming off snow covered higher terrain.

The Bruneau River, Owyhee River at Mountain City, and Jarbidge
River near Jarbidge are all currently in action stage, and are
expected to remain elevated over the coming days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/92/93/96