109
FXUS65 KLKN 130902
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will bring isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for today and
Tuesday, before quieter weather moves in for the remainder of the
week. Another system may affect the region for the weekend but
uncertainty remains high with this possibility. Temperatures will
remain above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Radar echos can be seen
along the Idaho border in northern Humboldt and Elko counties this
morning. Remote observation platforms have not reported
precipitation at this time. The feature responsible for this
isolated activity is a weak upper trough that will be moving
through the area today. This will allow for the development of
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
northern and east-central Nevada this afternoon. Look for
afternoon breezes of 20 mph though the isolated convective
activity could produce wind gusts to 40 mph. Afternoon high
temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. Leftover, isolated
showers will continue into the early evening hours in central
Nevada with lows in the 40s.

The upper trough will make its way through the area Tuesday and
out Tuesday night. At this time, only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly in central Nevada. North to
northwest winds will be breezy with gusts to 30 mph with highs
slightly cooler but remaining in the 70s to near 80 degrees in
some spots. Quiet and calm weather will be the main driver for the
overnight Tuesday with lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

High pressure over the eastern pacific ocean on Wednesday will
continue to slowly drift eastward, which will result in warm and
dry conditions across the entire CWA Wednesday and Thursday. Winds
Wednesday afternoon will be northerly 10-15mph gusting 20-25mph,
with strongest winds over the mountains of central NV. Winds on
Thursday will be a little lighter as the approaching high pressure
results in a weakening flow aloft.

Thursday night into Friday the high pressure off the west coast
breaks down as a closed low develops off the southern CA coast,
while at the same time trough energy slides in over the Pacific
NW. Nevada will be wedged between the two systems Friday through
Sunday, with increasing chances of thunderstorm activity over
portions of the CWA each afternoon. Confidence remains low however
on the location of potential showers and TS each day.

Temperatures remain above normal through the long term period,
with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight
lows in the 40s to low 50s. The warmest day next week is expected
to be Friday with most locations 10-15 degrees above normal. Warmer
temperatures will aid in the melting of mid and high elevation
snowpacks, which will in turn result in rising flows to streams
and creeks coming off snow covered mountains. Expect increases in
flows on Lamoille Creek, the Jarbidge River and Martin Creek,
especially in the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours and
afternoon west/northwesterly breezes with gusts around 20KTS are
expected at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups will develop this
afternoon and a low probability for rain showers and thunderstorms
is expected this afternoon across eastern Nevada. Afternoon VCTS
forecast for KEKO and KELY with the main threats being occasional
lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Any showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Nevada will dissipate thru this
evening with winds becoming light at all terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Warm temperatures in the low 70 to low 80s will start
to erode the higher elevation snow pack, but overnight temperature
will be cool enough to keep the melting from progressing too
fast.

Wildhorse Dam Reservoir currently resides in action stage and is
forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next few days.

Other rivers and creeks that are showing signs of increased flows
and a river statement has been issued. Though stream gage heights
are not at bankfull stage, these streams are flowing fast and
cold. With the warm temperatures during the week, these stream
heights will continue rising.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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