562
FXUS65 KLKN 181101
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
401 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over primarily
White Pine and northern Nye counties, otherwise dry and storm-
free with temperatures trending a few degrees warmer across the
region. Increasing clouds Sunday afternoon, with isolated light
rain showers over and near White Pine county. Temperatures Sunday
will be much cooler across northern NV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. Warm and dry across
northern NV today with highs in the 70s to low 80s, along with
westerly winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25mph. Across portions of
central NV, including most of northern Nye and White Pine
counties, increasing clouds this afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms. Moisture is limited however, with precipitable
water values across most of central NV only around a half inch. As
such, any storms that develop this afternoon are expected to
produce either just virga, or possibly a few hundredths of an inch
of rain. Convection tapers off in the the mid evening hours.

Trough energy clips northern NV on Sunday with the main impact
being significantly cooler afternoon high temperatures across
northern NV. Most of northern NV can expect highs on Sunday to be
10-15 degrees cooler than today. Highs across central NV (roughly
along and south of Highway 50) on Sunday will be similar to
today. Winds Sunday afternoon will be W-NW at 10-20mph gusting
20-30mph across the region.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

Pattern change to more of a broad scale weak upper troughing will
be established over the northwest US. This pattern will bring
cooler temperatures for the week and a few shots at precipitation
as shortwaves work through the upper northerly flow. The first
piece of energy will drop south from the Canadian Rockies and clip
eastern NV. This system will bring a low 10 to 25% chance at
valley rain showers and a few high elevation snow showers for
locations east of a Battle Mountain to Eureka line for Tuesday.
Mainly this system will act to reinforce the cooler air mass
already over the NE NV. After a quiet Wednesday the next shortwave
will clip the Silver State Thursday morning. Models dont favor
digging this system into NV instead keeping on more of a easterly
track across Idaho, with only far northern NV seeing a meager
10%-20% chance at precipitation. However, the better chances
arrive Friday afternoon into Saturday as a trailing shortwave
looks to track across the I-80 corridor, pushing a cold front
through the state that is strong enough to generate a 20% to 45%
of showers and thunderstorms. Models as per the usual this far out
are a bit sketchy on details, and run to run consistency with
this solution so time will tell. Temperatures begin the week on
the cool side with high Monday in the upper 50s to upper 60s, and
with reinforcing cool fronts won`t recover much by Friday as
highs only recover into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows will also
start on the cool side with temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s
Tuesday morning, and will only recover into the upper 30s to
upper 40s for Saturday morning. Winds for the extended will be out
of the NW to W through the Friday at speeds that will be light to
breezy at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
across central NV, including near KELY and KTPH. Potential impacts
will include gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 35 knots.
Breezy W-NW winds will also be present in the afternoon with gusts
20 to 25 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures continue to enhance
melting of the remaining high mountain snowpack, which will in
turn result in elevated and at times increasing flows on streams
and creeks coming off snow covered higher terrain.

Lamoille Creek, the Bruneau River, Owyhee River at Mountain City,
Wildhorse Reservoir, and the Jarbidge River near Jarbidge are all
currently in action stage, and are expected to remain elevated
over the coming days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/98/90