755
FXUS63 KFGF 140618
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
118 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers with isolated thunder will affect the
  region through the week and into the weekend. Impacts will be
  minimal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The forecast remains on track this morning, with east to
northeast winds prevailing at 5-10 mph for most areas. Winds are
slightly higher near Devils Lake, as showers and isolated
thunderstorms approach from the west. Dry air at the surface
continues to inhibit much of this rain from reaching the ground
as of this update, but is expected to saturate as the morning
progresses.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with multiple
embedded shortwaves headed for the region. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement with the general pattern evolution, although
uncertainty exists with timing and coverage of precipitation.

A low probability for frost across northwest Minnesota tonight,
but clouds from current system across southern Manitoba
combined with warm air advection should keep min temps in the
upper 30s.

...On and off Showers...

A few sprinkles across northwest Minnesota this evening as an
initial shortwave provides forcing. There is an area of rain
across southern Manitoba, but as this forcing propagates
southeast it will be moving into a drier environment and is
expected to be mostly virga as it crossed the international
border.

For the remainder of the week - best chances appear to be
tonight/Tuesday morning across the Devils Lake basin and
Tuesday night into Wednesday across the entire region. Although
coverage and timing at any one particular location is uncertain,
most locations will experience at least some rain through
Wednesday. Embedded thunder anticipated although stronger storms
are not expected.

For later in the week into the weekend, multiple scenarios
exist mainly surrounding strength and track of the upper waves
within the zonal flow aloft. This influences duration of showers
and QPF amounts - although the probability for severe weather
and excessive rainfall is very low, so other than rain
interrupting outdoor activities, impacts minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR through the early overnight with showers moving into the DVL
area around 10z with eastward extent into the valley by mid
morning. Ceilings remaining VFR with better chance for MVFR by
the end of the period. Could see vis reductions with showers
though this depends on the degree of dry air so still some
uncertainty.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TT