234
FXUS63 KFGF 151534
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1034 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across
  much of the area, with a low chance for a few stronger storms
  in west central Minnesota.

- Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon have a chance to be strong
  to severe. The probability for widespread severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- Active pattern continues into the weekend and next week, with
  several more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Looking at observations the northern river valley and southeast
North Dakota moving into the southern river have precipitation
falling. A few bolts of lightning are still being produced near
the fergus falls area. I modified POPs to reflect these
occurrences and trying to time out the moving wave as showers
develop in the central valley. Maybe if the clouds break we
might get a few thunderstorms in the afternoon but chances are
currently looking very slight as the HRRR is the only one
depicting convection in the afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Radar returns are beginning to increase in southeastern North
Dakota this morning, with still a bit of dry air keeping much of
the rain from reaching the ground. Precipitation will gradually
overcome this dry layer this morning as rain pushes to the north
and east. Temperatures remain on track, with mid to upper 40s
along the International Border and mid 50s in southeast North
Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today into tonight: Look for an increase in shower activity this
morning, with isolated embedded thunderstorms this afternoon. Best
chance for thunderstorm activity today will be in the southern
portions of the Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon; however, isolated
small hail cannot be ruled out. Soundings indicate the potential for
around 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, along with SFC-3km shear up to 25 knots.
This, along with the position of the upper low, could potentially
allow a brief period this afternoon where we could see weakly
organized thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity from this
first system will push off to the east and northeast overnight.
Rainfall totals through Thursday morning will range from 0.10 inch
near Devils Lake to 1 or more inches in the southern Red River
Valley (70 percent chance).

Thursday: Another shortwave moves across the area Thursday, bringing
mainly isolated showers and thunderstorm activity to the area.
Rainfall potential on Thursday is much lower, with about a 40
percent chance to see 0.10 inch or more precipitation around Devils
Lake, and 20 percent elsewhere.

Friday: Our next chance for more widespread rain occurs Friday as
another shortwave moves across the area. Looking at ensemble
members, there is a fairly large number of potential solutions that
involve strong thunderstorms. SBCAPE ahead of the main system has a
70 percent chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg and a 20 percent chance to
exceed 2000 J/Kg in southeastern North Dakota. Low to mid level
shear (0-1km and 0-3km shear) support organized thunderstorms, with
much weaker deep layer shear potential. There will be a relatively
strong theta-e gradient to provide lift and initiation during the
afternoon and evening hours. Mode is somewhat uncertain at this
time; however, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out, although most
soundings show better chances for multicell convection or hybrid
type storms.

For the weekend and into next week: Lingering showers and
thunderstorms are possible through around midday Saturday as zonal
flow takes over across the Northern Plains. This will be relatively
short lived in this progressive setup, and another shortwave is
expected to impact the region starting Sunday afternoon. Early
indications show another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with
a few stronger storms not out of the question. Progressive flow
brings several more shortwaves across the area Monday through
Wednesday, with a large degree of temporal and spatial variation at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions this morning are expected to deteriorate through
the TAF period as low pressure brings showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area. Look for rain to spread from
southwest to northeast through the day, with the best chances
for heavier rainfall occuring at KFAR. Elsewhere, generally
light showers are expected. There is a low chance for
thunderstorm activity this afternoon across portions of the
area, with the best chances occuring to the south and east of
KFAR. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected later this evening and
into the overnight period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch