286
FXUS63 KFGF 151746
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across
  much of the area, with a low chance for a few stronger storms
  in west central Minnesota.

- Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon have a chance to be strong
  to severe. The probability for widespread severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- Active pattern continues into the weekend and next week, with
  several more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers are ever so slowly moving northeast with the average
observation reporting a couple tenths almost as far north as
highway 200. Lightning is being produced in the northern devils
lake basin and into Canada. The showers look to take a break
around 03z for most of the region tonight and continue again tomorrow
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Looking at observations the northern river valley and southeast
North Dakota moving into the southern river have precipitation
falling. A few bolts of lightning are still being produced near
the fergus falls area. I modified POPs to reflect these
occurrences and trying to time out the moving wave as showers
develop in the central valley. Maybe if the clouds break we
might get a few thunderstorms in the afternoon but chances are
currently looking very slight as the HRRR is the only one
depicting convection in the afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Radar returns are beginning to increase in southeastern North
Dakota this morning, with still a bit of dry air keeping much of
the rain from reaching the ground. Precipitation will gradually
overcome this dry layer this morning as rain pushes to the north
and east. Temperatures remain on track, with mid to upper 40s
along the International Border and mid 50s in southeast North
Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today into tonight: Look for an increase in shower activity this
morning, with isolated embedded thunderstorms this afternoon. Best
chance for thunderstorm activity today will be in the southern
portions of the Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon; however, isolated
small hail cannot be ruled out. Soundings indicate the potential for
around 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, along with SFC-3km shear up to 25 knots.
This, along with the position of the upper low, could potentially
allow a brief period this afternoon where we could see weakly
organized thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity from this
first system will push off to the east and northeast overnight.
Rainfall totals through Thursday morning will range from 0.10 inch
near Devils Lake to 1 or more inches in the southern Red River
Valley (70 percent chance).

Thursday: Another shortwave moves across the area Thursday, bringing
mainly isolated showers and thunderstorm activity to the area.
Rainfall potential on Thursday is much lower, with about a 40
percent chance to see 0.10 inch or more precipitation around Devils
Lake, and 20 percent elsewhere.

Friday: Our next chance for more widespread rain occurs Friday as
another shortwave moves across the area. Looking at ensemble
members, there is a fairly large number of potential solutions that
involve strong thunderstorms. SBCAPE ahead of the main system has a
70 percent chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg and a 20 percent chance to
exceed 2000 J/Kg in southeastern North Dakota. Low to mid level
shear (0-1km and 0-3km shear) support organized thunderstorms, with
much weaker deep layer shear potential. There will be a relatively
strong theta-e gradient to provide lift and initiation during the
afternoon and evening hours. Mode is somewhat uncertain at this
time; however, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out, although most
soundings show better chances for multicell convection or hybrid
type storms.

For the weekend and into next week: Lingering showers and
thunderstorms are possible through around midday Saturday as zonal
flow takes over across the Northern Plains. This will be relatively
short lived in this progressive setup, and another shortwave is
expected to impact the region starting Sunday afternoon. Early
indications show another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with
a few stronger storms not out of the question. Progressive flow
brings several more shortwaves across the area Monday through
Wednesday, with a large degree of temporal and spatial variation at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

For the most part VFR look to continue through this afternoon
however ceiling look to start to drop this evening and continue
through tomorrow into the MVFR/IFR. Winds will also continually
shift throughout the night due to the interaction between the
upper low to our south and a surface low to our west. This
interaction is causing some uncertainty in timing for the
windshift and how low the cloud ceiling will drop.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...MM