253
FXUS63 KFGF 140904
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
404 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances increase throughout the week. Widespread
  impacts are not expected, however a few strong thunderstorms
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An active pattern prevails through the remainder of this week and
into the weekend. Rain chances increase today from west to east
ahead of a weak mid level trough. The best chances for rain occur in
the Devils Lake area through much of the day before slowly expanding
east. There is a 70 percent chance to see at least 0.25 inch of rain
along the International Border by Wednesday late afternoon. Further
south, the system will interact with another system working across
the Central Plains, which will bring slightly more moisture to the
area. There is a 70 percent chance of 0.50 inch of rain or more
across the southern Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota
today through late Wednesday.

The next two systems traverse the area Thursday and Friday. These
will be in the form of H7 troughs that are extending southward in
association with a larger H5 upper low in northern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. Timing on these remains somewhat uncertain, and will
ultimately determine our thunderstorm chances for both Thursday and
Friday afternoons. As of the current guidance, there is a signal for
potentially strong storms both days, with the best chances Friday
afternoon. CAPE looks to be modest both days, generally less than
1200 J/Kg; however, this will be in the presence of good forcing and
low level shear. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out,
especially on Friday.

Active weather continues into the weekend and early next week as
another series of troughs moves across the Northern Plains. Rain
chances remain in the forecast; however, timing and amounts at this
range are rather uncertain. Overall, longwave patterns support
continued active weather and rain chances through much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR through the early overnight with showers moving into the DVL
area around 10z with eastward extent into the valley by mid
morning. Ceilings remaining VFR with better chance for MVFR by
the end of the period. Could see vis reductions with showers
though this depends on the degree of dry air so still some
uncertainty.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT