Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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605 FXUS63 KFGF 162040 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 340 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight. An isolated stronger storm possible this evening, mainly in eastern North Dakota. - Impacts possible Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1 inch in diameter are the main concern. - Gusty westerly winds possible on Saturday, with gusts up to 45 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Surface low in northern Minnesota continues to slowly push eastward late this afternoon. As a result, low to mid level clouds continue to linger for these areas and will gradually lift through the evening. Meanwhile, clearing skies are being found across eastern North Dakota although will gradually fill in with cloud cover this evening as a surface trough moves into the area. Along with surface trough could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through this evening. If these storms through this evening become surface based, there is modest CAPE over 1000 J/KG t to fuel them. Mix layer CAPE is not quite as high though. 0 to 6 KM shear of around 30 to 40 knots is also adequate for stronger storms. Looking at soundings, the CAPE appears skinny despite some turn in the hodographs. Overall an isolated stronger storm is possible this evening with some small hail and gusty winds possible. These thunderstorms then look to merge into a line a weak showers moving from west to east through the night. Some patchy fog is possible tonight before these showers arrive in eastern portions of the CWA, mainly from Lake of the Woods to the Red Lake area. With the cloud cover lows tonight will generally be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Showers then exit eastern areas of the CWA Friday morning. As a surface low moves across southern Canada a warm front will lift across the CWA. This will bring a southerly breeze and warming temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Most of the day looks dry Friday, although increased instability along the warm front will bring about some slight chances for an isolated thunderstorms, dependent on if the CAP can be overcome. Friday evening through the night, a cold front will push from west to east across the CWA. This will have ample instability and shear to work with in central ND. By the time it reaches eastern ND and NW MN, thunderstorms could already be formed into a line of thunderstorms. There will still be an adequate amount of cape and shear when this line moves through. DCAPE values of 1000 J/KG and 0 to 3 km shear of over 20 knots indicate strong winds being the main threat. If an isolated storm can get going ahead of this line, hail up to an inch in diameter is possible. Lows Friday night will remain mild in the 50s. This weekend, then looks to be cooler yet still mild. Strong winds behind the mentioned cold front could be found on Saturday, especially in eastern North Dakota where near advisory level winds are possible. A developing low lee of the northern Rockies could return chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Depending on timing of this low perhaps a strong storm is possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Clusters then indicate a broad trough pattern going into next week. Even though there are still decent spreads in the NBM and clusters, this will likely be a cooler pattern with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 MVFR to IFR clouds continue to linger across northwestern Minnesota, with VFR conditions slowly returning to eastern North Dakota. Anywhere with lingering low clouds early this afternoon will see a gradual transition to VFR by mid to late afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected tonight into Friday morning. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible to most TAF sites this evening through tonight. Confidence was only high enough to place in VCSH in TAFs at this time. Light winds today will become a steady southerly wind tonight into Friday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin