634
FXUS63 KMPX 060421
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1121 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeasterly winds are expected Monday into Monday
  evening, particularly in western MN.

- A line of widespread rain with a few embedded rumbles of
  thunder will move west-to-east across the region Monday
  evening and overnight.

- Unsettled weather is expected throughout the upcoming week
  with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday Evening and Overnight...The main change to the forecast
was to introduce hourly chances for rainfall Monday evening and
overnight. A line showers and thunderstorms will move east, and
weaken as it does. The most likely outcome is that all locations
will see at least some rainfall, and most locations will pick
up near a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, which is
why precip chances are near 100 percent.

The risk for severe weather is very low, as the Storm
Prediction Center only has a general thunder outlook across the
region. Even this thunder risk is on the lower side, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, but it is still worth
mentioning based on the few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the
forecast soundings. The 850-925mb low level jet wind profile of
50-60 kt is impressive, so the main concern is the potential for
stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface with any rain
showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Its a gorgeous Sunday afternoon across the Upper Midwest with
light winds, temperatures in the upper 60s with only some
diurnal Cu thanks to a surface high overhead. By this evening,
the surface high shifts over the Great Lakes with the 500mb
ridge axis over Minnesota and Wisconsin through the first half
of the day Monday. With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will
likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to
mid 70s. A strong, negatively tilted trough and its associated
surface low will swing into Wyoming and South Dakota during this
time, setting the stage for some gusty southeasterly winds for
the western half of the forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for much of the late morning through the evening across
western Minnesota. Clouds will increase through the day from
west to east as the aforementioned low continues to move
northeastward across the Dakotas, but we should make it through
the majority of the afternoon without any precip. CAMs depict a
line of showers moving from southwest Minnesota to the northeast
with the front as the low wraps up over the Dakotas Monday
night into early Tuesday. As for thunder chances, while it cant
be ruled out entirely, they are low due to the timing of the
best lift along the front. QPF wise, a quick 0.5-0.75 is
expected through Tuesday afternoon with higher amounts possible
across western and southern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday
will still be in the mid 60s to low 70s with clouds gradually
clearing late in the afternoon behind the precip.

Heading into Tuesday night, the low and its parent 500mb wave
appear to stall out over the western Dakotas. This will allow
for continued shower chances throughout the next couple of days.
We will find ourselves in the warm sector of this broad system
through Wednesday. By Thursday, the system finally makes some
eastward progress as the ridge across the Northeast breaks down.
QPF over these few days will amount to 0.25-0.50 or so, with
the highest totals across the southern third of Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday
will have the highest precip chances. With the cold front
finally moving through on Thursday, highs will fall into the low
60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Non-zero chances
for showers will continue through the end of the week with
temperatures gradually warming into next weekend. Looking ahead,
a stretch of drier weather looks increasingly likely with mild
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and
thunderstorms move in. The main concern is low level turbulence
as southeast winds increase on Monday. A solid line of showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the region
Monday evening/night. Confidence is high that TAF sites will
see rain, but less for thunder, so did add Prob30 groups to
KAXN, KRWF, and KMKT.

KMSP...VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and
thunderstorms move in. Southeast winds will increase on Monday,
with gusts near 30 kts possible. A line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms will approach KMSP around 05 to 06Z.
Confidence is high that MSP will see rain, but less for
thunder.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for Brown-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB