Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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942 FXUS63 KMPX 161941 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 241 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chance (10 to 20 percent) for showers overnight north of I-94 in Minnesota. - Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. The risk for severe weather or heavy rain is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Main change to the forecast was to add a small chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of I-94 late tonight (after midnight) into Friday morning. An area of isentropic ascent ahead of a low amplitude shortwave will lead to ascent. HiRes models are in good agreement in developing a few showers and thunderstorms. Instability is very low, so the risk for severe weather is near-zero. Eventually these will lift northeast and weaken as warm air advection spreads across the region on Friday, leading to highs in the 80s to near 90 across western MN. DESI showed a 20 percent chance of seeing 90s degrees, so continued with forecast temperatures on the higher side of guidance. On Saturday a cold front will pass through the region, but should move through mainly dry. There is a small chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-35. This frontal boundary will move through and stall out across Iowa, which will be the next focus for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into next week. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Sunday will start out dry with southeast winds developing ahead of the next storm system that will bring widespread rain across the region Sunday night into Monday. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be on the cool side of this system, so that means little if any instability and a very low severe weather threat. Precipitation chances have increased from the previous forecast, as confidence remains high that most locations will see rain with this system. Looking ahead, a couple more storm systems will move across the region next week. Given the timing and placement differences, this leads to a forecast with 20 to 40 percent chances for rain throughout the period. In reality, there will be more narrow windows when rain will move across the region. As has been the case this entire spring, the warm sector of these system is expected to remain to the south, which means low chances for severe weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Early afternoon observations have reflected improvements to high MVFR/low VFR ceilings across TAF sites. The upward trend is forecast to continue in the short term, such that the 18z TAFs all include improvements to VFR by mid-afternoon, or so. Breezy westerly winds decrease into this evening and will shift out of the south into Thursday morning. Winds will increase out of the southwest by midday Friday, so expect an uptick in the winds in forthcoming TAFs. Opted to keep AXN/STC dry overnight, however latest hi-resolution models have depicted the chance for a few isolated showers at the northernmost terminals. The chance appears low, so will defer to the 00z issuance for possible mention. KMSP...Improvements to VFR this afternoon, with light winds overnight. Southwest winds will increase Friday afternoon, which will create crosswind setup on the parallels. Sustained winds 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20, to perhaps 25 kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts. SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts, bcmg NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...Strus