Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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727 FXUS63 KMPX 170826 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 326 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low RH values Saturday afternoon could result in areas of elevated fire weather conditions. - Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning. The risk for severe weather is low. - An active pattern set to begin Sunday night. Multiple chances for rain, possibly heavy, and thunderstorms over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Scattered thunderstorms across west & central Minnesota north of I-94 this morning that`ll taper off as the storms move further east into a more stable and drier environment. Warm air advection will kick in today as an impressive low level jet roaring aloft. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s across MN & WI, with a solid shot at 90 across western Minnesota. There is a non-zero chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but there is a lot working against it. Forecast soundings highlight an impressive inverted V featuring very dry low levels that`ll limit any chance for precip to make it to the surface (virga). Saturday will feature another pleasantly warm day, but we`ll have to keep an eye on elevated fire weather potential Saturday afternoon post-fropa as RH values could drop into the 20-25 percent range. A sfc cold front will pass through the Upper Midwest. This will present western Wisconsin with a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop along it Saturday afternoon. Rusk Co is included in SPC`s day 2 outlook, but most CAMs don`t initiate until past the MPX WI CWA. Sunday will see an uptick in PoPs throughout the day as southeast flow will ramp up moisture advection into the region. The quasi-stationary front across Iowa will become a focal point for a rather active pattern setting up over the next week or so. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... A mid-level trough amplifying over the western CONUS will drive southwest flow aloft over the region throughout the week. WPC has highlighted days 3-5 with marginal chances for excessive rainfall. The first shortwave moves through Sunday night and will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms across Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It looks like the best chance for widespread and heavy rain will be across S MN and into W WI. Monday will dry out, but by Monday night another round of storms and showers will ride along the stationary boundary set up across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This batch of possible heavy rainfall will be in the late Monday into Tuesday time frame when guidance indicates a more potent shortwave energy lifting across the stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. Model uncertainty spikes later into the week but it certainly looks possible that additional round of showers Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Showers could linger into Thursday before drying out on Friday. Temperatures start off in the extended with highs in the upper 70s Sunday and Monday. However, temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the Tuesday low pressure system/frontal boundary pushing off to our south and east. This pattern also would suggest a cloudier forecast that would support cooler temperatures. This active pattern looks to continue into Memorial Day weekend before things "dry out" toward the end of May. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. A FEW to SCT mid-level deck is possible this afternoon, but VFR nonetheless. There is also a slight chance of a few showers over western and central MN around sunrise, but chances are too low for inclusion. Breezy westerly winds at initialization will diminish to around 5 kts late this evening through the overnight hours and back to southerly, then increase to near 10 kts by late this morning. Added gusts after 18z to capture a bump in hi-res models. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts. SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts, bcmg NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BPH