Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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404 FXUS63 KMPX 142321 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 621 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Most locations should see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain as an area of showers and thunderstorms moves from west to east across the region Wednesday into Thursday. The risk for severe weather is low. - Thursday and Friday should by dry for most locations. - Small chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend and into next week, but there is a lot of uncertainty due to the lack of a strong signal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Confidence continues to increase that most locations will see measurable rainfall as showers and thunderstorms move across the region Wednesday into early Thursday. Rain will move in across southwest Minnesota on Wednesday morning, but be slow to progress eastward. Most location in central/eastern MN and western WI will not see any rain until the evening. The lack of instability and deep layer wind shear means the risk for severe weather is low. However, there is a surface low that will track across central Minnesota, with southeast winds and a narrow area of MLCAPE expected to develop in the small warm sector. Forecast soundings do show veering winds with height in the lower levels of the atmosphere. If, and it`s a big if, the instability ends up being on the higher end of the forecast guidance, then there could be a non-zero threat for a brief tornado. A quick HREF comparison of the MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH from May 06 2023, which produced a few tornadoes in southwest MN, shows less instability and shear for tomorrow than was forecast on that day. This reinforces that the risk for severe weather is low, and the general thunder across the region on the SPC Day2 outlook is the most likely scenario. This system will lift off to the northeast, and that should lead to a dry day for Thursday. There are still small chances for showers or thunderstorms, but most locations should remain dry. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...There is high uncertainty for this weekend and beyond. An upper level shortwave trough will move across the International Border late Friday into Saturday. Warm air will lift northward ahead of this feature, and highs on Friday and Saturday will reach the 80s at most locations. This system is trending a bit more amplified, which means better forcing for precipitation to the south ahead of a cold front that will move across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ensemble guidance shows GEFS clustering with a deeper trough, while the EC ensemble is less amplified. Rain chances are higher to the north for Friday and Saturday, and the overall risk for severe weather is low. Looking ahead to next week, the cold front will move south, but then become stalled across the Corn Belt. This front will become another focus for showers and thunderstorms as it moves northward as a warm front. Where this front stalls out, and where it becomes active is still uncertain as the shortwaves driving this are low predictability. There is some indication that the zonal flow of the northern stream that we have been experiencing will phase with the southern stream as a longwave trough digs out across the western CONUS. This could transition us back into a more active weather pattern for the end of May. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR through most the period with continued E/SE winds under 10 knots. Clouds will spread across the region from west to east through the next day. VFR will persist until the next round of rain approaches. Within this TAF period rain is most likely for AXN with other TAFs seeing rain start time in the 06Z TAFs. MVFR is expected when the rain starts. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but rain showers are more likely. KMSP... Rain showers will arrive Wednesday evening with a drop into MVFR expected. Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 10-15kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds S 15-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...NDC