769
FXUS65 KVEF 171913
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1213 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will peak today followed by a cooling trend
over the weekend. Most areas remain dry aside from isolated showers
over the Sierra and southern Great Basin over the next few days.
Gusty winds develop on Sunday and Monday afternoon as well,
especially in San Bernardino County. Dry, seasonably warm, and
breezy conditions are anticipated later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday.

Forecast challenges in the short term include warm but decreasing
temperatures, gusty winds, and precipitation potential. The upper
level ridge currently over the forecast area will progress east,
replaced by a series of shortwaves and eventually a broad trough. As
a result, a gradual cooling trend is expected with near normal
temperatures on track to return by Monday. For Las Vegas, this means
highs in the low to mid 90s over the weekend and upper 80s early
next week.

The position of the incoming trough and associated low level jet
will allow for increased southwesterly winds across much of the
forecast area, with the strongest winds in western San Bernardino
County. Saturday`s gusts should be in the 20 to 30 mph range.
However, the NBM gives a 70 to 90 percent chance of wind gusts over
40 mph on Sunday and Monday in that area. Some uncertainty remains
in the duration of the winds, will continue to monitor trends to
determine the need for headline issuance.

The trough will assist in advecting moderate moisture into the
forecast area, sending PWATs into the .3 to .6 inch range. The
highest POPs are on Saturday over the Sierra and southern Great
Basin due to a combination of increased orographic lift and
atmospheric moisture content. However, coverage will remain isolated
and precipitation totals should be light. Thunder cannot be ruled
out with these storms.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday.

As the trough quickly moves east on Tuesday, ensembles showing
another low digging south down the British Columbia coast. This
system will maintain a broad longwave trough over the west through
the remainder of the week. There is some uncertainty just how far
south the low may dig, but as of now GEFS and EPS keep the lowest
heights over the northern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. Under
this trough, the region will be breezy to windy with near to
slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light easterly winds should
shift to south southwest with gusts around 20 knots this afternoon.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the timing. Based on previous
experience with similar situations in which later was often better,
have pushed the time back to 23Z. Gusts should end after sunset and
then kick back up again around midday Saturday. No operationally
significant clouds or weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will be generally southwesterly over most of the
region this afternoon, with gusts ending around sunset except in the
Barstow area where gusty westerly winds will persist overnight.
Southwesterly winds will increase again during the day Saturday,
with the strongest gusts of around 30 knots in the Barstow area.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon should be
limited to areas from the Sierra crest to near Dyer, with coverage
Saturday afternoon expanding from the Sierra crest eastward to the
panhandle of Lincoln County.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Morgan

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