137
FXUS65 KVEF 181931
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1231 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds increase through the weekend and Monday
with the strongest winds expected to occur in San Bernardino County.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible today over the Sierra and
southern Great Basin. Temperatures decrease as an upper level trough
moves into the area. Near average high temperatures are expected by
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

An upper level trough moves into the western United States over the
next few days. This pattern allows for the development of a low
level jet through San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties. At the
surface, gusty southwesterly winds continue this evening but should
taper off tonight. However, the low level jet strengthens on Sunday
and surface winds increase in response. The NBM gives a 70 to 90
percent chance of gusts over 40 mph for the northwest section of San
Bernardino County by Sunday night. However, uncertainty remains in
the spatial extent and duration of 40+ mph wind gusts, as well as
their impact to population centers and roadways. These winds may
last through Monday evening and spread into eastern San Bernardino
County or far southern Clark County. Brief downslope winds may also
occur on the eastern slopes of the Sierra and Spring Mountains.
Therefore, will continue to monitor trends for details on the timing
and placement of the winds and to determine whether a headline will
be issued.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra and southern
Great Basin decrease as convection slows down after sunset. Moisture
shifts to the east and additional chances for shower and
thunderstorm development returns each afternoon on Sunday and
Monday, mainly over Lincoln County. PWATs are in the .4 to .7
inch range, or over 100 percent of normal for this time of year.

Temperatures continue their downward trend over the next two days as
heights aloft fall. High temperatures should be close to their
seasonal normals by Monday. For Las Vegas, this means highs in the
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Cluster H5 height anomalies which assimilates 100 model simulations
shows some flavor of a longwave trough across the western states
next week. Under this pattern, the region will be at least breezy at
times with near to slightly below normal temperatures heading into
the Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South to southwest winds should be
predominant today, with gusts around 20 knots this afternoon. Gusts
should end after sunset and then kick back up again around midday
Sunday. Turbulence can be expected as the strong winds pass over the
mountainous terrain. No operationally significant clouds or weather
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will be generally southwesterly over most of the
region this afternoon, with the strongest gusts of 30 to 35 knots in
the Barstow area. Gusts will end around sunset except in the Barstow
area. Gusty west to southwest winds will pick up again over most of
the region around midday Sunday, with the strongest afternoon gusts
of around 35 knots in the Barstow area again. There could also be
brief downslope winds and rotors on the east side of mountain ranges
such as the Sierra Nevada and the Spring Mountains on the west side
of Las Vegas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
should be mainly in areas from the Sierra crest eastward to the
panhandle of Lincoln County, and much less coverage is expected
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Morgan

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