Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
023 FXUS65 KVEF 170849 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 149 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will peak today followed by a slight decreasing trend accompanied by gusty afternoon winds each day through the weekend as a trough gradually digs from the Pacific Northwest. Dry, seasonably warm, and breezy conditions are anticipated next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Sunday. Temperatures will peak around 10 degrees above normal today then decrease a few degrees each day through the weekend as multiple shortwaves dive across the Pacific Northwest and carve out a mean broad trough over the western states by Sunday. South-southwest winds will increase each afternoon in response to the gradually developing trough...especially on Sunday. However, wind speeds should not be too impactful with gusts generally 20-30 mph forecast by the NBM Saturday and Sunday across most of the region. The exception will be the western Mojave Desert between Barstow and Ridgecrest Sunday evening where there is a 60 percent probability of gusts greater than 40 mph. Limited moisture over the southern Sierra will lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon followed by coverage expanding across central Nevada Saturday afternoon as mid level convergence increases across those zones. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. A weak cutoff low which had been spinning well west of the southern California all weekend is forecast to phase with stronger northern stream trough moving through the Intermountain West on Monday. There is a chance for showers or thunderstorms on Monday in Lincoln County within favorable region of forcing. As that trough quickly moves east on Tuesday, ensembles showing another low digging south down the British Columbia coast. This system will maintain a broad longwave trough over the west through the remainder of the week. There is some uncertainty just how far south the low may dig, but as of now GEFS and EPS keep the lowest heights over the northern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. Under this trough, the region will be breezy to windy with near to slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid... Southwest winds to around 7 knots through 15z. Between 15z-19z winds are expected to become more variable with the possibility of northeast to southeast winds around 5-7 knots. Confidence in the direction during those times remains low. After 19z, look for southwest winds to increase with speeds between 10-20 knots which will continue through the afternoon. Just a FEW mid level clouds during the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most TAF sites will see winds under 10 knots through 18z with increasing south to southwest winds after 18z. Wind speeds will generally be between 10-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots over the western Mojave Desert. Just a FEW mid level clouds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Pierce AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter