549
FXUS65 KVEF 141947
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1247 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper low near Southern California will keep limited
moisture and instability over our region leading to isolated light
showers or sprinkles along with a few thunderstorms through
Wednesday. An eastern Pacific ridge nosing inland will bring even
warmer by Friday with highs climbing around 10 degrees above normal.
A slight cooling trend with increasing southwest winds develops late
this weekend into early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday Night.

Scattered to broken clouds and isolated light showers and
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon due to limited mid level
moisture and instability in a broad deformation zone draped across
our forecast area. Any precipitation will be light and the main
hazard aside from lightning will be convective wind gusts. The
latest HREF indicates a 30-50 percent probability of gusts over 35
mph confined primarily over eastern Lincoln County and far northeast
Mohave County.

Showers may continue after sunset as the area of moisture slowly
becomes a little more consolidated while it transitions southward
tonight and Wednesday due northerly flow aloft increasing and
nudging the SoCal low inland just south of the Mexico border. This
will produce more cloud cover and isolated light showers or
sprinkles over parts of Clark, San Bernardino and Mohave counties
Wednesday morning through the afternoon.

Clouds clearing out Wednesday night under dry northerly flow aloft
will yield sunny skies Thursday with general north winds 5 to 15 mph.
High temps will climb a degree or two as an eastern Pacific ridge
noses inland.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday.

A growing ridge over the eastern Pacific will continue to grow over
the western United States late-week into the weekend. Temperatures
will remain 10 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages, with desert
valleys increasing to "Moderate" HeatRisk. Las Vegas has a 50%
chance of the first 100F of the year on Friday and a 30% chance on
Saturday.

There remains a fairly large temperature spread over the weekend and
into the start of next week (10 degrees between the 25th and the
75th percentiles) in the NBM. This is largely due to the approach of
a closed low in the southeastern Pacific which will lower heights
over the region as it pushes inland. Details regarding strength,
location, and timing will continue to be ironed out as we move
through the week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds generally light and favoring an
easterly direction through 3 pm then shifting to the south or
southwest. There is a 25-30% chance of sustained winds at above 10
knots during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds tonight are
forecast to be under 10 knots. Mid and upper level clouds with bases
at or above 12kft will continue to stream across the Las Vegas area
through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds increase out of the south to southwest with
speeds over 10 knots this afternoon in the Las Vegas Valley and the
Colorado River Valley. At KIFP and KEED, this will also include
gusts between 15-20 knots. At KBIH, winds are forecast to follow a
diurnal pattern however, thunderstorms will also develop in the
afternoon which may cause sudden changes in wind direction and
speed. Winds will follow a diurnal pattern at KDAG with speeds over
10 knots in the evening. Mid and upper level clouds stream across
the area through the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Salmen

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter