061
FXUS64 KHGX 171744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

While rain chances do return later on today, we are not anticipating
anything near as robust as Thursday`s line of storms. With a weak
frontal boundary now sitting off of the coast, slightly drier air
will remain in place for the areas that really need a break from the
rain (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods). PW values remain elevated along
the coast with the front still sitting off of the coast. This is
important to note because of an approaching shortwave trough that
will act as a lifting source for that moisture and generate another
round of showers/storms later this morning into the afternoon hours
along a coastal trough. There will be a capping inversion in place
around 850mb that`s a little bit weaker closer to the coast. Between
that and the environment being worked over from yesterday`s intense
convection, it`ll be difficult for a storm to tap into the elevated
instability. That`s why the SPC only has a marginal risk (level 1
out 5) of severe weather right along the coast. If a storm were to
reach it`s full potential, then it could carry a strong wind/hail
threat, but again this is not expected to be anything close to what
happened yesterday.

Most of the rain will fall along and south of the I-10 corridor, and
with inland PW values remaining generally around or below 1.5" (75th
percentile: ~1.57"), rainfall rates aren`t expected to be that
impressive. Latest forecast shows an additional 0.5"-1.0" of
rainfall south of I-10, which is definitely manageable. Rain chances
gradually taper off going into late afternoon/early evening hours.
With the rainfall and persistent clouds throughout most of the day,
we`ll only see temperatures top out in the low 80s. Unfortunately,
the low 80s are "cool" compared to the rest of the forecast period.
The combination of surface high pressure bringing in drier air and
ridging aloft building in behind the departing trough will equate to
a period of above normal temperatures that extends into next week.
High temperatures on Saturday will top out in the upper 80s to low
90s. Heat index values will make it feel more like the mid to upper
90s, especially along and south of I-10. On the plus side though,
the increased subsidence means that rain chances are at zero.

We know that there are still thousands of you without power around
Southeast Texas from yesterday`s storms, and based on some of the
damage to power/transmission lines this could extend for multiple
days. The weather pattern is shifting into a hot and dry pattern
starting on Saturday, so it is going to be important to have a way
to stay cool. Be sure to check in on your family/friends/neighbors,
especially those that are vulnerable, to be sure that they have ways
to stay cool as well. If you are using a generator, PLEASE be sure
to operate it outdoors in a well-ventilated area. A couple of tips
for keeping your home cooler during the daytime: keep your windows
and doors closed to prevent outdoor air from coming in and use
blinds/curtains to keep the sunlight from entering. We hope that the
power outages are resolved quickly for all of you. Stay safe, y`all.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Make sure all safety precautions are taken during this forecast period
(see the paragraph above) as temperatures and heat index values continue
to rise. The combination of ridging aloft and onshore winds at the surface
will help inland high temperatures initially in and upper 80s to lower
90s range on Sunday to edge a couple degrees warmer (into the low to
mid 90s) as the upcoming week progresses. Heat index values will be
on the rise too, initially peaking in the upper 90s to around 100 on
Sunday then rising to generally around a 100 to 105 range Monday through
Thursday. Some of our northern counties (mainly north if I-10 but more
likely our far northern counties) could flirt with some heat relief
generally in a Wednesday through Thursday time period as some showers/
storms develop up north and skirt across that area. And not forgetting
our low temperatures, expecting Monday morning`s upper 60s to lower
70s to be the coolest morning with mid to upper 70s expected at most
locations beginning Tuesday and continuing into the start of next weekend.

Most of our climate site`s average monthly temperatures for May are
already around 2 to 3 degrees above normal, and this upcoming heat
will only boost these numbers upward.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Coastal sites and UTS at VFR. All other sites experiencing either
MVFR or IFR CIGs this afternoon. Rain continues to move in from
South Texas, impacting primarily locations along and south of 59
& 90. Rain chances trend down this afternoon and evening with
primarily VFR CIGs expected overnight. Few to scattered low to mid
level clouds expected with broken skies in the upper levels.
Closer to sunrise, MVFR VSBYs will be possible for a couple of
hours at northern terminals with MVFR CIGs possible at coastal
terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

In the wake of yesterday evening`s storms, weakening north to northeast
winds today will shift back around to the east and south over the weekend.
There is another chance of some showers and thunderstorms today and
tonight as a disturbance moves up the coast. If any stronger cells develop
with this activity...they will probably be in the Gulf waters rather
than the bays. Gradually strengthening south to southeast winds and
rising seas can be expected next week.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

With generally 3-5" of rain falling across portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods on Thursday, rivers expectedly responded and
subsequently rose. This is on top of the minor to major river
flooding that was already ongoing for parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The
following river points are either currently in flood stage or are
forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Friday morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage (forecast)
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage (forecast)
- Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage (forecast)

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage (forecast)

MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Crockett): Minor Flood Stage
- Long King Creek (Livingston): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage
- Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Trinity River (Romayor): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Davidson Creek (Lyons): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat continues.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Huntsville (UTS) got another 4.08 inches of rain yesterday, and
this brings their total for the month of May to 17.94 inches
(normal May rainfall is 4.03 inches) and their total for the year
so far to 50.14 inches (normal yearly rainfall is 43.65 inches).

-This is now Huntsville`s wettest May on record (previous record
 was 14.93 inches in 2015).
-This is now Huntsville`s 2nd wettest month on record (wettest
 month on record is 21.35 inches set in August 2017).
-This is now Huntsville`s 9th wettest year on record (wettest
 year is 66.76 inches in 2015).

Huntsville`s records date back to 4/1/1998.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  67  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  69  91  72 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  75  85  76 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42