136
FXUS64 KHGX 180454
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Rain continues this afternoon in a SW to NE line from Jackson
County to Liberty County. Rain, for the most part, has remained
south of I- 10. Will continue to monitor the potential for some
stronger and isolated severe thunderstorms along the coast (SPC
has a Marginal Risk out for the coastline). So far activity has
not materialized into anything more than light to occasionally
moderate showers. A couple of lightning cloud flashes have
occurred. Storms over South Texas this morning and the inability
for the environment to fully recover from yesterday`s storms may
keep the severe threat at bay.

Rain should taper off tonight as the trough exits and high pressure
builds in...while sunny skies would normally be appreciated after
the multiple events we have had in SE Texas this spring, the high
pressure will send daytime highs to above normal levels through next
week. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The
combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values in
the upper 90s to near 100F on Saturday, especially along and south
of I-10.

To echo the last forecaster`s discussion...hundreds of thousands of
people remain without power, and based on the damage to
power/transmission lines this could last for days, potentially even
weeks. As high pressure builds in this weekend, it will kick off a
pattern of hot and dry weather. Please make sure to check in on
family, friends, and neighbors (especially those who are
vulnerable). If you are using a generator, make sure to operate it
outdoors in a well-ventilated area! Furthermore, a few things you can
do to keep your home cool include keeping widows and doors closed
and closing your blinds & curtains.

Stay safe, everyone.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The heat returns...it is imperative to take all safety precautions
in the next several days.  A major pattern change begins on Sunday
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over northern
Mexico/Southern Plains. Still appears that temperatures will peak
after Tuesday as temperatures climb near the 99th percentile of
climatology per NAEFS guidance. These percentiles continue to add
confidence in the forecast for a period of hot and muggy conditions.
Highs into the low to mid 90s can be expected through the week.
These temperatures are near to slightly above normal for this time
of year; however, the combination of hot and humid conditions will
result in heat indices in the triple digits. Upper-level ridge
axis shifts to our east by mid- week as an upper trough slides
over the Rockies and pushes a frontal boundary across the central
Plains. Latest deterministic solutions keep most of this activity
north of the area; however, continued with some slight chances as
some forcing may be present due to passing weak shortwaves. The
best chance at seeing precipitation look to arrive towards the end
of the week with the combination of the aforementioned frontal
boundary and a parade of mid-level shortwaves.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Patchy fog cropping up for stretches across SETX, with SGR
dropping as low as 1/2SM by 05Z. Still a mix across the spectrum
from the LIFR at SGR to VFR, but still bring a mix of generally
IFR or MVFR to most terminals tonight. Anticipate that VSBY will
be quite variable overnight as it`s been this evening, dipping to
lower values for a time, interspersed with periods of improvement.
VFR emerges areawide in the morning, and holds with light/VRB
winds for most/all of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered showers with a few storms will continue to move over the
bays this afternoon, before moving offshore this evening/tonight.
Light to occasionally moderate north to northeast winds this
afternoon will transition to the east and then southeast through the
weekend. Dry weather and light to moderate offshore winds should
persist through at least mid-week. Winds and seas will gradually
strengthen/rise after mid-week as different disturbances move
through.

JM

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Huntsville (UTS) got another 4.08 inches of rain yesterday, and
this brings their total for the month of May to 17.94 inches
(normal May rainfall is 4.03 inches) and their total for the year
so far to 50.14 inches (normal yearly rainfall is 43.65 inches).

-This is now Huntsville`s wettest May on record (previous record
 was 14.93 inches in 2015).
-This is now Huntsville`s 2nd wettest month on record (wettest
 month on record is 21.35 inches set in August 2017).
-This is now Huntsville`s 9th wettest year on record (wettest
 year is 66.76 inches in 2015).

Huntsville`s records date back to 4/1/1998.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  67  90  70  91 / 100   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  83  74  83 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM