795
FXUS64 KHGX 181115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

As you can imagine...our soils are fairly saturated given the
multiple rounds of rainfall we`ve seen recently. Surface high
pressure building in early this morning has allowed wind speeds to
become calm. Couple that with skies becoming mostly clear in some
spots allowing for temperatures to fall closer to the dew points in
the upper 60s, and we have fairly favorable conditions for
widespread fog development. Some of this fog may be dense at times
and it is expected to last till around 9am Saturday morning, so be
sure to exercise the proper precautions if you have plans to hit the
roadways. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of
Southeast Texas till 10am CDT this morning. Once the fog burns off,
our attention then turns to the upcoming period of above normal
temperatures.

As an upper level trough exits to our east, upper level ridging
begins to build in on late Saturday and marks the beginning of an
extended period of hot and dry conditions. Drier air remains in
place over the weekend though and that`ll be coupled with not much
of a breeze throughout the weekend due to a weak pressure gradient.
850mb temperatures will remain well into the 90th percentile through
the weekend, so expect high temperatures mainly in the low 90s for
Saturday and Sunday. Surface high pressure does shift eastward late
Saturday allowing for light onshore flow to return. That`s going to
be more important going into next week with the bump up in humidity
leading to more widespread heat index values in the triple digits.
Heat index values over the weekend will mainly be in the upper 90s,
but some spots will be close to feeling like 100F. Overnight
temperatures will mainly be in the low 70s (and fairly muggy with
maximum RH values greater than 95%). Speaking of that, model trends
are pointing towards another night of patchy on Saturday night
especially for locations along and west of I-45.

As of early Saturday morning, there are still 500,000+ of you
without power around Southeast Texas (mainly Harris, Montgomery, and
Waller Counties) from Thursday`s storms. Unfortunately, due to the
damage to power/transmission lines this could extend for multiple
days/weeks. Today marks the beginning of an extended period of hot
and dry conditions, so it is going to be important to have a way to
stay cool. Be sure to check in on your family/friends/neighbors,
especially those that are vulnerable, to be sure that they have ways
to stay cool as well. Some cooling centers have been opened around
the Houston area to offer relief to those without power, so be sure
to find the closest one to you. Know the signs of heat exhaustion
and heat stroke, especially as the cleanup process continues. If you
are using a generator, PLEASE be sure to operate it outdoors in a
well-ventilated area. A couple of tips for keeping your home cooler
during the daytime: keep your windows and doors closed to prevent
outdoor air from coming in and use blinds/curtains to keep the
sunlight from entering. We hope that the power outages are resolved
quickly for all of you. Stay safe, y`all.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Little change has been made to the long term period. Heat will be the
main weather story throughout this period as upper level ridging builds
into the state from the south and southwest. For inland locations...we`ll
start with highs in an upper 80s to low 90s range on Monday followed
by a couple days (Tuesday/Wednesday) with highs in the low 90s. We`ll
shave a couple degrees off the highs on Thursday as the ridge sags southward
just a bit and allows for a disturbance/weakness to move eastward across
the state and possibly provide areas generally near and especially to
the north of I-10 with some shower/thunderstorm chances. The disturbance
exits off to the east at the end of the week and allows those high
temperatures to warm back up into a low to mid 90s range. As for lows,
enjoy Monday morning while you can (readings in the upper 60s to lower
70s) because the rest of the week will be in the low to mid 70s. Heat
index values throughout this forecast period will be in a 95 to 105
range, and all safety precautions should be taken. As of now, next
Saturday looks like it could become our first Heat Advisory day of
2024, but do not wait until an Advisory is issued to exercise safety.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Reduced visibilities due to patchy fog are expected to persist
through 15Z before dissipating and allowing for conditions to
return back to VFR. Winds remain light throughout the day
generally around or less than 5 mph. There is potential for
another round of patchy fog and at least MVFR ceilings late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will shift back around to the east and south over the weekend.
Any lingering showers or storms will taper off early this morning.
Gradually strengthening south to southeast winds and rising seas can
be expected during the upcoming week. Caution flags might be needed.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San
Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in
flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early
Saturday morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage (forecast)
- East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Moderate Flood Stage (forecast)

MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Crockett): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage
- Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Minor Flood Stage
- Peach Creek (Splendora): Minor Flood Stage
- Caney Creek (Splendora): Minor Flood Stage
- Lake Creek (Sendera Ranch Rd.): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  71  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  76  84  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ177>179-
     197>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42