384
FXUS64 KHGX 182321
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

We can all breathe a collective sigh of relief for the partly cloudy
to sunny skies today. For those of you without power, we hope that
power is soon restored for you. Our next battle will be with the
heat... High pressure will continue to build in this weekend with
hot and dry conditions expected. Max temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s through the rest of the weekend and into early
next week. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s for much of
the area. If you are without power, and even if you are not...please
make sure to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, take frequent
breaks if working outside, and look before you lock!

Tonight we may see another round of patchy fog. We should have
experienced some drying out today, so not anticipating the fog to be
nearly as dense as what occurred overnight into this morning. Fog
should develop generally along and west of I-45. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 60s further north and in the low 70s for the rest of
the area.

Enjoy the quiet weather, SE Texas!

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The long-term forecast looks to be a mostly dry and quiet one...with
heat being the main forecast issue. A persistent onshore flow at the
lower levels combined with strong ridging at the mid/upper levels to
our SW appear to be the main weather features for the upcoming week.
However, there could be a slight chance of rain by mid week (Wed) as
a weak front approaches our northern CWA and a couple of short-waves
move in from the west. Still looking at low POPs mainly north of the
I-10 corridor.

As for temperatures, look for highs ranging from the upper 80s to the
lower 90s with progged heat index values from 95F to 105F through the
period. For lows, readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Mon mor-
ning are expected to warm to the lower to mid 70s for the rest of the
week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions with light south-southeasterly winds will continue
through around midnight, then increasing low level clouds and
patchy fog will be a concern overnight. CIGs will initially lower
to MVFR conditions area-wide by 5-7z, then lower to IFR to even
LIFR conditions with CIGS down to 400-700ft by 9-11z. Patchy fog
will also lower visibilities down to 2-5mi and becoming denser at
times - though shouldn`t be as dense or as prolonged as last
night. Fog dissipated after sunrise with the clouds scattering out
through the morning with VFR conditions returning around 15z.
Clear skies will prevail through the day tomorrow with
southeasterly winds around 6-11kt.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will continue shifting to the east and southeast tonight...with
these generally light winds in place for tomorrow. Gradually strength-
ening south to southeast winds and increasing seas can be expected as
the week progresses. Caution flags might be needed. 41

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San
Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in
flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early
Saturday morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage (forecast)
- East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Moderate Flood Stage (forecast)

MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Crockett): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage
- Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Minor Flood Stage
- Peach Creek (Splendora): Minor Flood Stage
- Caney Creek (Splendora): Minor Flood Stage
- Lake Creek (Sendera Ranch Rd.): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  89  70  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  90  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  84  75  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...41