Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
755 FXUS63 KFGF 140618 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 118 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off showers with isolated thunder will affect the region through the week and into the weekend. Impacts will be minimal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning, with east to northeast winds prevailing at 5-10 mph for most areas. Winds are slightly higher near Devils Lake, as showers and isolated thunderstorms approach from the west. Dry air at the surface continues to inhibit much of this rain from reaching the ground as of this update, but is expected to saturate as the morning progresses. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with multiple embedded shortwaves headed for the region. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with the general pattern evolution, although uncertainty exists with timing and coverage of precipitation. A low probability for frost across northwest Minnesota tonight, but clouds from current system across southern Manitoba combined with warm air advection should keep min temps in the upper 30s. ...On and off Showers... A few sprinkles across northwest Minnesota this evening as an initial shortwave provides forcing. There is an area of rain across southern Manitoba, but as this forcing propagates southeast it will be moving into a drier environment and is expected to be mostly virga as it crossed the international border. For the remainder of the week - best chances appear to be tonight/Tuesday morning across the Devils Lake basin and Tuesday night into Wednesday across the entire region. Although coverage and timing at any one particular location is uncertain, most locations will experience at least some rain through Wednesday. Embedded thunder anticipated although stronger storms are not expected. For later in the week into the weekend, multiple scenarios exist mainly surrounding strength and track of the upper waves within the zonal flow aloft. This influences duration of showers and QPF amounts - although the probability for severe weather and excessive rainfall is very low, so other than rain interrupting outdoor activities, impacts minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR through the early overnight with showers moving into the DVL area around 10z with eastward extent into the valley by mid morning. Ceilings remaining VFR with better chance for MVFR by the end of the period. Could see vis reductions with showers though this depends on the degree of dry air so still some uncertainty. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...TT