Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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218 FXUS63 KFGF 151145 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 645 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across much of the area, with a low chance for a few stronger storms in west central Minnesota. - Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon have a chance to be strong to severe. The probability for widespread severe thunderstorms is low. - Active pattern continues into the weekend and next week, with several more chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Radar returns are beginning to increase in southeastern North Dakota this morning, with still a bit of dry air keeping much of the rain from reaching the ground. Precipitation will gradually overcome this dry layer this morning as rain pushes to the north and east. Temperatures remain on track, with mid to upper 40s along the International Border and mid 50s in southeast North Dakota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Today into tonight: Look for an increase in shower activity this morning, with isolated embedded thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chance for thunderstorm activity today will be in the southern portions of the Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. Severe thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon; however, isolated small hail cannot be ruled out. Soundings indicate the potential for around 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, along with SFC-3km shear up to 25 knots. This, along with the position of the upper low, could potentially allow a brief period this afternoon where we could see weakly organized thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity from this first system will push off to the east and northeast overnight. Rainfall totals through Thursday morning will range from 0.10 inch near Devils Lake to 1 or more inches in the southern Red River Valley (70 percent chance). Thursday: Another shortwave moves across the area Thursday, bringing mainly isolated showers and thunderstorm activity to the area. Rainfall potential on Thursday is much lower, with about a 40 percent chance to see 0.10 inch or more precipitation around Devils Lake, and 20 percent elsewhere. Friday: Our next chance for more widespread rain occurs Friday as another shortwave moves across the area. Looking at ensemble members, there is a fairly large number of potential solutions that involve strong thunderstorms. SBCAPE ahead of the main system has a 70 percent chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg and a 20 percent chance to exceed 2000 J/Kg in southeastern North Dakota. Low to mid level shear (0-1km and 0-3km shear) support organized thunderstorms, with much weaker deep layer shear potential. There will be a relatively strong theta-e gradient to provide lift and initiation during the afternoon and evening hours. Mode is somewhat uncertain at this time; however, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out, although most soundings show better chances for multicell convection or hybrid type storms. For the weekend and into next week: Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible through around midday Saturday as zonal flow takes over across the Northern Plains. This will be relatively short lived in this progressive setup, and another shortwave is expected to impact the region starting Sunday afternoon. Early indications show another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms not out of the question. Progressive flow brings several more shortwaves across the area Monday through Wednesday, with a large degree of temporal and spatial variation at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions this morning are expected to deteriorate through the TAF period as low pressure brings showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Look for rain to spread from southwest to northeast through the day, with the best chances for heavier rainfall occuring at KFAR. Elsewhere, generally light showers are expected. There is a low chance for thunderstorm activity this afternoon across portions of the area, with the best chances occuring to the south and east of KFAR. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected later this evening and into the overnight period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch