Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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670 FXUS63 KFGF 160249 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 949 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today across much of the area, with a low chance for a few stronger storms in west central Minnesota. - Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon have a chance to be strong to severe. The probability for widespread severe thunderstorms is low. - Active pattern continues into the weekend and next week, with several more chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Clouds and rain showers continue to linger in the area. From the looks of radar, the band of showers is pivoting to the North on the MN side, and staying pretty fixed in position around Fargo and other southern Red River Valley locations. Overall, the system should continue an easterly path into eastern Minnesota. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Rain showers continue to slowly move east this evening. Should see some clearing into tonight, but I`d say we needed the slow, steady rainfall for the drought. Forecast remains on track otherwise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A quick moving ridge will provide a brief lull in the rain but our precipitation chances continue Thursday evening. The probability for 0.10 inches for Thursday is trending as 30 percent or less with the higher probs located north of Highway 2. If we get a break in the clouds tomorrow morning there should be enough daytime heating for some instability to develop and produce your garden variety thunderstorms in the late afternoon to early evening. This also aligns with the Storm Prediction Center`s general thunderstorm category for our forecast area. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with highs currently forecast to be from 77 to 85 degrees. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s, while precipitable water values top out over 1 inch. This will set the stage for a potentially active day, but the exact surface details have yet to be ironed out. At this point, the surface low at 12z Friday should be over southwest Saskatchewan. This puts the FA in the warm sector, allowing for the warm day mentioned above. With the 500/700mb lows over central Alberta/central Saskatchewan, this frontal boundary will not move eastward too fast. Therefore, by 00z Saturday, the surface low or cold front will push through western North Dakota and be somewhere close to central North Dakota. Correspondingly, a weak piece of 700mb energy should rotate around the parent low, ejecting out and helping to push the cold front eastward. Getting into Friday night, ensembles show the potential for a low level jet, elevated instability, and 850mb warm advection. The best focus area for this appears to be across southern Manitoba and western Ontario, but this could always change. This setup seems to favor convection developing west of the FA on Friday, shifting into northeast North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota Friday night. So the best chances for precipitation in this FA look to be Friday night. Severe chances are there, but are on the low probability side so far. For improving confidence, would like to see it get into the CAM range. A cold front passes through Saturday morning, with the main impact thereafter being gusty west winds for the rest of Saturday. A zonal type pattern continues for the remainder of the long term, with the periodic waves (precipitation chances) continuing throughout. With precipitation chances and clouds, temperatures will remain on the cooler side. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 MVFR will be the prevailing condition into Friday. Some sites could dip into IFR with sporadic lower ceilings, but confidence is not high enough in where this will occur to be certain in the TAFs. RA will continue to progress eastward, mainly affecting the MN TAF sites into tomorrow. Winds will calm and turn VRB this evening from west to east, before becoming steady out of the NW and transitioning to West and SW Friday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...Godon/MM AVIATION...AH