Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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253 FXUS63 KFGF 140904 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 404 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances increase throughout the week. Widespread impacts are not expected, however a few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An active pattern prevails through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Rain chances increase today from west to east ahead of a weak mid level trough. The best chances for rain occur in the Devils Lake area through much of the day before slowly expanding east. There is a 70 percent chance to see at least 0.25 inch of rain along the International Border by Wednesday late afternoon. Further south, the system will interact with another system working across the Central Plains, which will bring slightly more moisture to the area. There is a 70 percent chance of 0.50 inch of rain or more across the southern Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota today through late Wednesday. The next two systems traverse the area Thursday and Friday. These will be in the form of H7 troughs that are extending southward in association with a larger H5 upper low in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Timing on these remains somewhat uncertain, and will ultimately determine our thunderstorm chances for both Thursday and Friday afternoons. As of the current guidance, there is a signal for potentially strong storms both days, with the best chances Friday afternoon. CAPE looks to be modest both days, generally less than 1200 J/Kg; however, this will be in the presence of good forcing and low level shear. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially on Friday. Active weather continues into the weekend and early next week as another series of troughs moves across the Northern Plains. Rain chances remain in the forecast; however, timing and amounts at this range are rather uncertain. Overall, longwave patterns support continued active weather and rain chances through much of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR through the early overnight with showers moving into the DVL area around 10z with eastward extent into the valley by mid morning. Ceilings remaining VFR with better chance for MVFR by the end of the period. Could see vis reductions with showers though this depends on the degree of dry air so still some uncertainty. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...TT