223
FXUS63 KEAX 151135
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return tonight. A few
  strong storms are possible. Main hazards include hail and
  gusty winds.

- Additional rounds of precipitation are expected through
  Friday.

- Nice weather expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

This morning, fog is expected to develop as temperatures across the
area have cooled within 2 degrees of the dew point temperature. A
current satellite shot shows clouds moving into our region from the
east and the west. The fog is expected to dissipate later this
morning with daytime heating. If cloud coverage increases after fog
formation limiting heating, the fog may linger into the late
morning/early afternoon.

Ridging builds into the area which is expected to keep conditions
dry for most of Wednesday after the fog dissipates. Highs
temperatures for Wednesday are expected to stay in the low to mid
70s. Wednesday night, an embedded shortwave is anticipated to move
through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be expected to develop in eastern KS and move to
the east. With CAPE values ranging from 500-1,000 J/kg and bulk
shear values from 30-40 knots, there is a chance for some isolated
strong storms. The main threats associated with these storms will be
hail and strong winds. PWAT values remain above 1 inch, which means
there may be a potential for concentrated heavy rainfall. This could
lead to flash/river flooding if rainfall is long in duration or if
storms begin to train over a single location.

Early Friday morning, a trough approaches from the southwest of our
area. Additional rounds of showers are expected as it passes over
our area. Going into the weekend, conditions are expected to remain
dry as ridging builds into the area. High temperatures are expected
to remain in the low to mid 80s which should make for a nice
weekend.

Extended guidance suggests a persistent pattern with a few more
troughs and ridges passing over the area through the start of next
week. This will result in more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The main determining factor in thunderstorm
development will be the amount of instability. There is a potential
for some strong storms if we are able to get warm, moist air from
the Gulf. High temperatures are expected to stay around the 80s
until the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Fog is affecting the TAF sites to begin the TAF pd reducing vis
to 1/4SM-1/2SM with LIFR cigs thru 13Z-14Z. Conds are expected
to become VFR 13Z-14Z with bkn clouds btn 3-4kft. Aft
02Z-04Z...thunderstorms are expected to move into the area
however, they will be scattered in nature so opted for VCTS
until conf increases on storms impacting terminals. Conds will
remain VFR however. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru the pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73