Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
829 FXUS63 KEAX 152337 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 637 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Thursday. Any storms that develop are expected to largely remain below severe limits. - Warmer and drier conditions expected this weekend into early next week. Cold front moving through the region Monday night could lead to strong to severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Zonal flow with ripples in the flow will continue to create periodic chances of precipitation through the end of the work week. Broad trough over the Northern Plains this afternoon is expected to shift east into the Upper Midwest tonight. Weakly capped atmosphere with weak instability ahead of the approaching shortwave may be enough to support the development of scattered thunderstorms through the overnight as the wave passes to the north. Increasing upper level dynamics are expected tonight as upper level jet steak forms on the leading edge of the upper level trough with increasing lift developing associated with the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet. 0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be in the 25-30 knot range much of the night, but with limited instability expect storms to largely remain below severe limits. Mid level lapse rate remain close to moist adiabatic, so the main severe threat appears to be a strong wind gust with any stronger storms that are able to develop. With a fair amount of high clouds remaining through the night, opted to side with 50% model certainty for low tonight. Weak instability and lift lingers across the area on Thursday and could see a stray shower or thunderstorm redevelop ahead of a weak cold front attempting to move through the area. The front is expected to stall in an east/west fashion across central Missouri. Along and south of the boundary, a weakly unstable atmosphere remains as another broad short wave moves across the southern plains. This will result in additional shower/thunderstorm activity largely south closer to the I-44 region. Upper level ridge builds builds into the central and southern plains through the weekend leading to warmer and drier conditions. Increasing southerly winds on Sunday into Monday will lead to effective moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points climb to near 70 degrees ahead of a cold front sweeping into the region Monday night. Thunderstorms can be expected along the front Monday night into Tuesday, some of which may be severe. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered showers are ongoing over NE Kansas and NW Missouri, with these intermittently impacting STJ. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely later this evening, primarily in the 4z to 9z time frame, with these occasionally impacting the terminals. After convection clears to the east, MVFR ceilings are probable for much of Thursday morning before returning to VFR by early afternoon. Winds should remain light, with winds turning northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon behind a cold front. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BMW