Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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499 FXUS63 KEAX 170532 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1232 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms gradually move out of the area this afternoon. Additional rainfall accumulations will be limited. -Dry weather is expected Friday into the weekend. Much warmer temperatures will return Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. -An active weather pattern returns early next week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible in the region, but details remain limited at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Thursday and Friday: Shower and thunderstorm activity has been slowly shifting to the south and east as the frontal boundary shifts out of the forecast area this afternoon. Additional rainfall accumulations will be limited and severe weather is not expected. The wave that brought todays weather will gradually shift east overnight and out of the region. A secondary wave is currently positioned to our southwest which will allow for shower and thunderstorm development on Friday across the Ozarks. Think this activity will primarily stay south of our forecast area, but can`t completely rule out being skirted by a few showers Friday afternoon. As far as temperatures go, expect slightly warmer temperatures across the forecast area with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. The Weekend: Mainly dry weather is expected heading into the weekend. Ridging returns across the region and southerly flow and warm air advection returns. Temperatures will respond by warming into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and again on Sunday. The Kansas City area can expect highs near 87 each day. These temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid-May. Next Week: The pattern becomes more active starting Sunday night and heading into next week as multiple waves traverse the forecast area for the early part of the week. Expect the return of showers and thunderstorms and cooler (though still above average) temperatures. Right now there are still low confidence in next weeks systems given how far out they are, but will need to monitor for potential stronger or severe storms near the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Moisture and precipitation is forecast to remain southeast of the terminals, leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon. Light winds expected. Fog chances early Friday will remain southeast of the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...Krull